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Welcome to the Agricultural Futures Trading’s agricultural / commodity futures trading blog. Each day our veteran AG Futures Trader provides unique insights into the commodities markets with over 20 year’s experience.

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Corn Futures Lower as Farmers Begin Biggest US Harvest…Ever

Corn futures retreated from yesterday’s highs today as good weather conditions help farmers harvest a corn crop that is said to be the biggest ever. Corn futures only finished the day a mere .02½c lower, but still just above its $3.35c multi-year lows.

The Maryland based “Commodity Weather Group” claims there are “no major harvest issues” for corn including any freeze threat through the first week of next month. The USDA also said last week this year’s harvest will yield almost 3.5% more bushels than last year. Corn futures have responded by dropping a little more than 19% so far this year.

Kevin Craney, Director of Managed Futures at RJO Futures in Chicago, shared his insight regarding the current corn futures situation, “Weather and yield prospects continue to favor the bears as harvest is underway. Questions about Chinese demand for U.S. corn continue to hang over the market.” Craney adds, However, (corn futures) traders are more focused on the prospect for higher than expected yields during harvest.”

Corn futures trend is down with no “bottom formation” yet in sight. I am patiently awaiting some type of bounce in corn futures to reset a short position with lower-risk.

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Waning Shipments Before US Harvest Lowers Soybean Futures

Let it be known soybean orders for the five important exporting country’s “dropped significantly” in August before global inventories become replenished when the US begins its soybean harvest in the next few weeks, according to the German-based industry group Oil World. Soybean futures are down today .08c from yesterday’s close as of this writing.

Oil World went on to say soybean exports from those five major countries still rose for the 2013-2014 marketing year that ended last month, some countries 20% more than the prior year. However, combined exports from the US, and four South American countries fell significantly last month to a “multi-month low” and 24% less that in August 2013.

Kevin Riordan, director of research at Capital Trading Group in Chicago, shared his insight regarding the current soybean futures situation, As we head into the middle of September new crop soybean supplies will likely begin to increase noticeably. This follows a period were North American shipments were depressed and South American soybean supplies and exports had been declining due to season pressure.”

The trend for soybeans futures is down with no bottom yet in sight. We are short soymeal and soybean oil with new lows made in soybean meal futures just today.

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AgFutures Trading Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Feeder Cattle

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Soybeans, Kansas Wheat, Sugar, Corn, British Pound, Euro-currency, Japanese Yen and Crude Oil, Natural Gas, CBT Wheat & Gold (New this week.)

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

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Wheat Futures Extend to 4-Yr Lows on Output Outlook

Wheat futures have dropped to prices not seen since 2010 on the outlook rising global production will only add to mounting wheat inventories and stockpiles. Wheat futures accelerated with the trend after today’s USDA Crop Production was released – confirming what traders already expected.

Wheat futures in Chicago have already dropped 15% before todays data on the view of record global production. The UN’s Food & Agriculture Organization’s prediction is about 3M metric tons more than the Int’l Grains Council’s world output view as prospects continue to improve for wheat crops in China, the European continent, and Russia.

These grains just keep falling with excellent crop conditions and plenty of inventory and stockpiles. This mornings report confirms this,” said Devin Brady, President of Progressive Trading Group in Sherman Oaks, CA, sharing his insight regarding the current wheat futures situation.

Wheat futures trend is down with no bottom yet in sight. I had to offset my short wheat futures positions before the report was released due to my policy of “not holding” positions through the report.

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Global Surplus Takes Sugar Futures to 2010 Lows

Sugar futures continue to find new lows as the world’s biggest sugar producer has stepped-up output of the product. Sugar futures are at prices not seen since 2010 now that Brazil has effectively expanded the global “glut” of sugar production.

Brazilian sugar industry group “Unica” claimed yesterday in a report their biggest sugar growing region in the country’s center-south is already producing 4.4% more sugar than this same time last year. Sugar futures have already declined over 27% from this year’s high in March.

Even though the (sugar) harvest in Brazil is starting to slow down, production for this season is still well outpacing demand.  Additionally this is the fourth consecutive season of oversupply of sugar,” said Barb Levy, chief director for The Fox Group’s futures division in Chicago, sharing her insight regarding the current sugar futures situation.

The technical trend for sugar futures remains down with no bottom yet in sight. We are short sugar futures since last week on this entire last leg down.

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Commodity Futures Markets at Lowest Level Since January

With the US Dollar advancing on the outlook for the Federal Reserve to increase interest-rates next year, the commodity futures markets have plummeted to their lowest levels since the very beginning of the year. Markets that have sent the commodity index lower include nickel, Brent crude oil, and corn (of all markets).

In the meantime, the US Dollar has climbed to a 14-month against 10 other high-profile currencies it is compared against, as reports later this week are expected to show retail sales improving and jobless claims dropping. Later next week Federal Reserve policy makers meet to discuss the dollar’s gain and its effect on domestic commodity prices rising compared to other currencies.

Most of our commodity futures markets we trade are in choppy to down-trending trends. However, choppy commodity futures markets lead to breakouts in one direction, or another, and that is what I am concentrating on catching at this slow time.

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AgFutures Trading Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Coffee & Feeder Cattle (New this week.)

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Soybeans, Kansas Wheat, Sugar, Corn, British Pound, Euro-currency, Japanese Yen and Crude Oil, Cotton, Natural Gas & CBT Wheat (Four new this week.)

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

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U.S. Crop Seen Large Sends Corn Futures Lower

Corn futures continue to plummet for a second day to prices not seen in four years. It is still being discovered that the corn crop conditions have improved and this is adding to the expectations for corn production this year to be the biggest ever.

Earlier this week, the USDA stated as of August 31st, nearly 74% of our domestic corn were rated “good to excellent condition” – the best week for corn since 1994! Other industry analysts insist the actual corn output will exceed the USDA’s estimate.

Everyone was expecting a bumper crop with ideal growing conditions since the crop was planted. December Corn (futures) hit its short term objective today at 343 3/4 . A close below that level should bring (corn) prices down close to the 300 level,” said Laura Taylor, a senior commodities broker at RJO Futures in Chicago, sharing her insight regarding the current corn futures situation.

The trend for corn futures is in the midst of finding new lows in its downtrend. We are short corn futures with the seasonal tendency this time of year.

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Grain Futures Lower on Waning Tensions in Black Sea Region

Both corn futures and wheat futures are significantly lower today with the improving prospects for Black Sea grain exports. The outlook with lower grain futures is that the tensions between Russia and Ukraine will ease.

Both leaders in these two countries are making an earnest effort to see to it this problem is resolved as amicably as possible, according to President Putin’s spokesperson. Grain shipments have continued uninterrupted throughout this whole ordeal, and thankfully so since 21% of all wheat exports around the world originate from these two countries.

I can understand the view of bearish grain (futures) markets if the two countries can reach an agreement, but it’s still a ‘wait and see’ situation until its completely resolved,” said Nicholas Medina, a futures and options specialist for Capital Trading Group in Chicago, sharing his insight regarding the current grain futures situation.

Corn futures and wheat futures trends are both still down with no bottom formation yet in sight for corn futures. Wheat futures appear to be putting in a double-bottom from last month’s low.

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