Welcome to the Agricultural Futures Trading’s agricultural / commodity futures trading blog. Each day our veteran AG Futures Trader provides unique insights into the commodities markets with over 18 year’s experience.

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the bigger picture changing for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Crude Oil & Copper

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  (No change from last week.)

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

With $1.2B in assets still unaccounted for, and nobody behind bars as of yet, former customers of bankrupt MF Global are pressing ahead with lawsuits against MF’s former CEO Jon Corzine.  No time is being wasted and they are lining up!

At least seven different parties are targeting Corzine in Manhattan’s federal court.  Fund managers, pension funds and individual investors alike, from Seattle to New England, have filed suit and are petitioning the court system NOT to have their lawsuits consolidated although each filing alleges Corzine (and other MF Global executives) misappropriated customers’ segregated funds.

Apparently the plaintiffs are seeing the “big picture” of the lawsuit by including MF Global’s banker, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and futures exchange, CME Group Inc. into the futures customer’s suits.  As a “victim” of the MF Global bankruptcy myself, I just hope this doesn’t push back being compensated in full in a timely manner…

A current outlook that the lack of protective snow covering will hurt winter wheat crops throughout Europe has sent wheat futures to their second consecutive monthly gain.  This month’s gain was punctuated by today’s 21.5 cent up-close in CBT Wheat futures from yesterday.

Meteorologists in Europe are reporting sub-zero temperatures expected in the wheat growing regions in northern part of the continent.  To make matters more imperative for the wheat market, Russian officials are considering taxing grain exports.

Chris Hildebrand, vice-president of trading at HighGround Trading Group in Chicago,  stated today in an e-mail exchange regarding the the current wheat futures situation, “News came in today from Russia regarding a cold snap that could possibly damage their winter wheat crops. Temperatures at 15 below or more have been recorded across the region. The initial bias now is for wheat (futures) to continue up, but we may get a break after the cold snap when we get a better picture of overall damage to the crop.” Hildebrand added, “There is also a roomer that Russia may go back to taxing exported grain which could drive (wheat) price‘s higher as well.”

Wheat futures are now in an up-trend, and we are long CBT Wheat futures.  The trend is new, so I am watching the price action a little closer than usual.  I am looking to buy long Kansas City Wheat futures in the next trading session.

We complained about the unfair hours for sugar futures trading this past year and a half, and they listened! The ICE Futures Exchange has revised its hours of trading for sugar futures, effective immediately.

Here is the ICE Exchange’s official notice:

“Effective with the start of trading on Monday, January 30, 2012 the daily electronic trading session for Sugar futures (No. 11) and options contracts will begin at 1:30 am NY time.

No change is being made to the (sugar futures) option contract floor trading hours (8:10 am to 1:30 pm NY time), the daily settlement window (1:28 to 1:30 pm NY time) or the end of the electronic trading day (2:00 pm NY time) for the Sugar futures No. 11 contracts, and no change is being made to trading hours for any other Exchange contract at this time.

In addition, during U.S. Daylight Savings Time the start of trading for Sugar futures No. 11 futures and options contracts will be adjusted to 2:30 am NY time. This DST-related change to Sugar futures No. 11 hours will become effective this year for trade date Monday, March 12 and will remain in effect through Friday, November 2, 2011. A reminder Notice will be issued shortly before the start of DST.”

Next on the agenda, removing the two hour, fifteen minute trading halt for CBT agricultural grain futures…

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the bigger picture changing for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Crude Oil & Copper

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  (None this week.)

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

There is news out of Russia that wheat supplies for exports are less than normal prompting shipments of the grain to slow down.  This revelation prompted wheat futures to advance further today to a three week high.

Just when Russian authorities lifted their grain export ban just six months ago, a research group there has realized current wheat stockpiles have not only dropped below last year’s levels, but some areas in the wheat exporting regions have declined as much as 50%.  Is another grain market export ban in the works…?

Kevin Craney, a senior commodities broker with RJO Futures,  stated today in an e-mail exchange regarding the wheat futures situation, “Wheat (futures) continues to see strong buying interest from both sides of the market. With the potential for an export ban out of Russia, and U.S. wheat priced competitively on the world market, the (wheat futures) market should remain well bid.”

Wheat futures remain at a crossroad – both CBT and Kansas City Wheat futures are hovering right around their moving averages, with CBT Wheat futures remaining in a technical up-trend, and Kansas Wheat futures in a technical down-trend.  With a test of the lows in order, I will look for short selling signals in Kansas Wheat futures tomorrow.

With more and more signs that demand for domestic beef will exceed production, live cattle futures continue to reach new record highs.  This is the sixth new high for the month as current beef inventories dwindle.

The USDA reported recently last year’s drought is still haunting the market with feedlots buying almost 6% LESS animals than just last month.  This is the biggest drop in month-to-month since last Spring, which implies there will be even less cattle going to slaughter in the foreseeable future.

“With last year’s drought in Texas the thinking is that there will not be enough beef in circulation. Farmers and Feeders are willing to pay the high premiums now as they can move the beef to cold storage if they do not get a fair price upon slaughter and make it up on the back end,”  said Chris Hildebrand, vice-president of trading at HighGround Trading Group in Chicago, regarding the current live cattle futures situation.  Hildebrand added, “The (live cattle futures) trend will continue up for the short term barring any bad news from outside forces.”

Live cattle futures are coming out of a sideways trading pattern with these new record cash prices.  Let’s look to enter long cattle futures on the next pull-back.

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the bigger picture changing for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Crude Oil & Copper (New this week.)

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Sugar

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

Just this past July, sugar traders forecasted the biggest sugar glut of the past five years – driving sugar futures to their largest decline since 2000, but now that outlook is possibly behind us.  Sugar futures traders now hold the outlook supply is about to shrink.

Traders are not waiting for a USDA report to justify their consensus evidentially.  The spreads between raw sugar and the July Sugar futures contract have expanded to almost a 10% spread over the past six months to now at a premium.

Kevin Craney, a senior commodities broker at R.J. O’Brien Futures in Chicago, had this to say today regarding the current sugar futures situation, “Sugar surpluses could very well be coming to an end. Demand for sugar is on the rise, and growing conditions remain unknown.”  Craney added, “This potential lack of supply is favorable for sugar (futures) moving forward, and is reflected in the forward curve.”

Sugar futures, although still technically in a down-trend, appear to be turning up.  We went “long” this market early today, and am looking for higher sugar futures prices over the course of this year.