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Welcome to the Agricultural Futures Trading’s agricultural / commodity futures trading blog. Each day our veteran AG Futures Trader provides unique insights into the commodities markets with over 20 year’s experience.

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AgFutures Trading Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, I update my personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is my professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, I monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts that I have identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the bigger picture changing for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Feeder Cattle and Coffee & 10yr. T-Notes (Both new this week.)

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Crude Oil, Lean Hogs, Copper, Natural Gas, Sugar, Soybeans, Russell 2000 Index, British Pound, Euro-currency, and Cotton (New this week.)

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

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US Dryness Putting Focus on Record Crop Weighs on Corn Futures

Corn futures continue to be weighed down for a second trading day as a new outlook for drier weather in the Midwest’s corn-belt shift views back to expectations for a record crop from harvest delays just last week. Corn futures have found support at $3.45 per bushel today which is just over .13 cents from high’s only yesterday.

A prominent weather group forecasts “very limited rain” over the next couple weeks and this dry-spell should allow the corn harvest to get back on schedule. American farmers are expected to reap the biggest corn (and soybean!) harvest…ever.

The trend for corn futures has only recently turned up in an emerging new trend early this week. We can still see another test of the corn futures low from the very beginning of this month before this trend either emerges, or trades sideways into the next seasonal low time period in December.

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Copper Futures About-Face on Demand Risk

Copper futures did a complete “about-face” today after yesterday’s run-up to the $3.10 level. Copper futures are back trading below $3.00 today after it was learned weaker US & Chinese inflation numbers are signaling slowing economies and less industrial metals demand.

Separate domestic and Chinese reports today revealed for the first time in a year, US wholesale prices fell unexpectedly last month. At the same time, reports from China show costs to consumers there rose at the slowest pace in almost five years. The significance here is these two countries represent the planet’s biggest copper consumers.

Disappointing economic data continues to weigh on the copper (futures) market. With Europe’s economy in shambles, any signs of a slowdown in the US could put the nail in the coffin for anything industrial, particularly copper,” said Devin Brady, President of Progressive Trading Group in Sherman Oaks, CA, sharing his insight regarding the current copper futures situation.

The trend for copper futures, although technically down, have been choppy at best. I will consider shorting copper futures on a pullback soon.

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Harvest Delays Spike Soybean Futures to Three-Week Highs

Soybean futures have spiked to a three-week high today on the outlook that precipitation will cause a delay of the domestic harvest. The US is the world’s largest producer of soybeans, so soybean futures are quite sensitive to domestic soybean news.

Although drier weather is expected closer to the end of the week, the rain in certain areas of the Mid-West will hinder the soybean harvest with any severe weather said to be unfavorable for the mature soybean crops. The USDA reported earlier this month that this year’s oilseed harvest is trailing the average of the previous five years.

The soybean futures are responding higher to the heavy rains and near freezing temperatures across much of the Midwest, that is keeping the farmers from being able to get the combines into the fields to harvest their crops,” said Barb Levy, chief director for The Fox Group’s futures division in Chicago, sharing her insight regarding the current soybean futures situation. Levy added,Additional support is coming from the potential for higher overseas demand for the large U.S. (soybean) crop.”

Soybean futures trend is technically down, however a bottom appears to possibly being put in place. I am still looking for another test of the low for soybean futures, but acknowledge we may have had our last short trade if volatility doesn’t contract at these upper levels.

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AgFutures Trading Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Feeder Cattle

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Soybeans, Kansas Wheat, Sugar, Corn, British Pound, Euro-currency, Japanese Yen, CBT Wheat, Gold, Copper, Natural Gas, Russell 2000 Index, Soybean Oil and Crude Oil & Lean Hogs (These two new this week.)

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

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Sugar Futures May Reverse on Looming Shortage in Brazil

With drought cutting into supplies in Brazil, the global sugar market is shaping up to be in its first deficit in half a decade (claims a top exporter and producer there). Sugar futures have recently climbed to .17 and one-fifth cent a pound in the larger rallies in two months.

Sugar futures have plummeted over 50% from their highs since 2011 as farmers planted more sugar cane, but now both Brazil and India are considering reducing sugar output (to reduce global reserves) for the first time in four years, the USDA estimates. Also, Brazil – which a forthcoming presidential election soon – has already raised the amount of sugar-ethanol used in fuel and may soon raise gasoline prices there.

The current drought has experts in the area predicting up to a 10% deficit, which would be the first in a handful of years,” said Laura Taylor, a senior commodities broker at RJO Futures in Chicago, sharing her insight regarding the current sugar futures situation. Taylor added,With sugar used for ethanol in that part of the world, and once the Brazilian elections are behind us and the government there set ethanol prices, we could see a significant low in sugar prices.”

The technical trend for sugar futures is at a crossroad. Sugar futures have technically crossed the uptrend threshold (in my work), but appear to be testing their recent lows. I must approach sugar futures with caution.

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Outlook for Bumper US Crop Causes Corn Futures Pause

Corn futures have paused after it’s biggest relief rally in seven weeks on the outlook the USDA will increase its forecast for this year’s domestic harvest. The U.S. is the world’s biggest producer and exporter of corn.

The USDA will release its updated estimates on Friday and analysts are already estimating output to be revised upward (albeit slightly). There is a twist to this story, however, that explains this current rally…my source explains to me there is much reported rain in the ground preventing extracting corn for harvest.

Oct 10th provides yet another look at the USDA Supply/Demand report at this critical time in the U.S grain harvest,” said Nicholas Medina, a futures and options specialist for Capital Trading Group in Chicago, sharing his insight regarding the current corn futures situation. Medina added, Producers are anxious to get the harvest completed but are being met with too much rain in many parts of the country.”

Gold futures trend is still technically down. I view this relief rally as a temporary event and am looking for short signals.

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Gold Futures Up a Second Straight Day with Dollar in Retreat

Gold futures may have found solid support as buyers have stepped-in for two days in a row now. The US Dollar’s decline may be boosting the precious metal’s appeal as an alternative investment, safe-haven.

In the relationship with 10-yr. T-Notes, the dollar slipped slightly with treasury’s and against most other major currencies. Compared with gold, it’s an inverse relationship – as the dollar has lost ground, gold futures climbed the most it has in two months.

Kevin Craney, Director of Managed Futures at RJO Futures in Chicago, shared his insight regarding the current gold futures situation by stating, As volatility in the stock market picks up and the dollar pulls back from its highs, gold has become more attractive to investors. A continued pull back in the dollar index could lead to additional gains for gold.”

Gold futures trend is still technically down. I view this relief rally as a temporary event and am looking for short signals.

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AgFutures Trading Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Feeder Cattle and NASDAQ

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Soybeans, Kansas Wheat, Sugar, Corn, British Pound, Euro-currency, Japanese Yen, CBT Wheat, Gold, Soymeal, Cotton, Copper, Silver and Natural Gas, Russell 2000 Index & Soybean Oil (These three new this week.)

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

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