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Welcome to the Agricultural Futures Trading’s agricultural / commodity futures trading blog. Each day our veteran AG Futures Trader provides unique insights into the commodities markets with over 20 year’s experience.  All posts considered to be “of opinion” and professional viewpoint of the author – AG Futures Trading.

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AgFutures Trading Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Japanese Yen

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Soy Oil, Russell 2000 Index, Silver, S&P 500 Index, Feeder Cattle and Crude Oil & Coffee (Both new this week.)

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

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Cotton Futures Find Support Amid Chinese Net Exporter News

Cotton futures is pricing in news of China reportedly becoming a net exporter of cotton (and wheat) by the end of this decade due to the slump in their cotton industry. Cotton futures settled up 27 points today to close at .6276 cents per pound at the Intercontinental Exchange.

Of all China’s commodities produced, cotton is said to be the only market that has suffered negative demand growth since 2008, and is expected to continue through 2020. China is reported to have lost international competitiveness in the textile industry which is the reason they will no longer need to import cotton after 2018.

The trend for cotton futures is down (once again) as of this week with no bottom in sight. Cotton futures have been trading in a .07 cent range for the better part of this year and is still finding its direction.

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Domestic Soft-Red Winter Wheat Quality Not Up to Par: Wheat Futures

Wheat futures may have a new situation to deal with in the foreseeable future – poor quality as well as quantity of the soft-red winter wheat variety said to be of the poorest rated going back more than 20 years. Wheat futures are trading lower by .07 today, currently at $4.79 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

Purchasers of US soft-red winter wheat are being advised by the US wheat export group, US Wheat Associates, to inspect their wheat purchases to ensure it meets their expectations of quality after unfavorable weather affected the crop. The wheat crop’s volume fell by almost 15% (to a five-year low) this year with the help of lower sowings.

Wheat futures trend is down but finding long-term support at the $4.70 level. Still no bottom left in sight for wheat futures at this time, but I would await some type of temporary relief rally before committing to a short position.

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Corn Futures May Soon Have to Price in Midwest Crop Damage

Corn futures are trading within last month’s USDA crop production report’s price range for that particular day, but corn farmers in the Midwest are reporting crop damage due to first, soaking rains in late spring/early summer, followed by a hot and dry August. Corn futures are trading down .06 cents currently at $3.69 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

A farmer that says he grows corn in Illinois on 1,500 acres calls his progress “a mix of the good, the bad, and the ugly” with normal-sized ears, but just as many plants hit with disease and/or lack of nutrients, or just plain dying on the vine. There are reportedly similar results appearing across the Midwest because of the crazy weather, so this isn’t a micro-regional situation.

The trend for corn futures is down, however the $3.65 area is offering strong support since late May. Corn futures is testing this support again, but if $3.57 fails there’s no bottom in sight.

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AgFutures Trading Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Japanese Yen (New this week.)

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Soy Oil, Sugar, Russell 2000 Index, Silver and S&P 500 Index & Feeder Cattle (Both new this week.)

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

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Gold Futures Sink Another $21 on Durable Goods Data

Gold futures have sold-off for a third session in a row from its $1,170 highs only on Monday once domestic durable goods orders rose an unexpected amount last month and now boosting sentiment for a forthcoming interest-rate hike. Gold futures are now down $12.40 per ounce and currently trading at $1,126 at New York’s Commodity Exchange.

When durable goods orders were expected to “drop” by 0.4%, the US Department of Commerce reported an actual increase for total durable goods orders by 2% last month. To reinforce the sentiment, June’s durable goods order’s were revised to a “4.1%” gain from the 3.4% which was previously reported.

The technical trend for gold turned up only one week ago today. Gold futures still look strong despite the three-day sell-off so if there are any jewelers or electricians out there looking for a place to buy, this may be it.

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Australian Cattle Market at Record High Diverging with US Cattle Futures

Maybe cattle futures “down under” are lagging behind the US livestock market, but Australian cattle prices are hitting record highs as our domestic cattle market continues to slide from late last year’s highs. Feeder cattle futures for October delivery are trading down $4 (CWT) today currently at $1.955 per pound at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

So far the Australian cattle market has realized gains as high as 68% (YTD) over the past year at a time when US cattle futures are down about 10% for the year, and steer values in Brazil are seeing their lowest in the past five years. It was only this past October that US “live cattle” futures saw a record high of nearly $172.00 a pound (CWT) after animals were taken out of the beef production line and beef prices raised for the animals that were available.

Feeder cattle futures trend is down with no bottom in sight. Two weeks earlier feeder cattle futures was at a crossroads to test the highs of last year, but have failed miserably since. Back to “what is good for the consumer” as time passes…

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Commodity Crop Markets a Hot Potato for Hedge Funds

Hedge funds are reportedly bailing on crop commodity markets such as the grains and cotton while the USDA reports excess supply adding to inventories. The grain markets have closed mixed today after an initial sell-off in the overnight markets, but cotton has been weak all during this trading session and is currently down 285 points to close the day near .6406 cents per pound at the Intercontinental Exchange.

For five straight weeks now the USDA has reported professional funds downsizing their bets for higher crop prices when in fact markets such as corn, soybeans, and wheat are seeing a reported combined slowing demand amid bumper global harvests. The “bullish” holdings have reportedly dropped 67% in five weeks!

All of the grain markets that are followed here are in down-trends with no bottom yet in sight. Cotton futures, however, appear to be resuming its overall downtrend just when a bullish scenario had been unfolding.

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AgFutures Trading Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  10yr. T-Notes (New this week.)

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Soy Oil, Sugar, Russell 2000 Index, Crude Oil, Silver and Coffee (New this week.)

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

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