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Welcome to the Agricultural Futures Trading’s agricultural / commodity futures trading blog. Each day our veteran AG Futures Trader provides unique insights into the commodities markets with over 20 year’s experience.

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Foreign Exporters & Domestic Ranchers Helping Push Wheat Futures Lower

Wheat futures is playing a cruel joke on our domestic farmers despite having the smallest crop harvested recently for the past three years. Wheat futures are finding lower prices because of outside factors such as surging wheat output overseas and a switching in feed in domestic use.

Now that feed prices have come back down to reality, US cattle ranchers have resumed using more corn in their livestock’s feed – which makes sense. What makes more “cents” is the fact our strong US Dollar is promoting other nations to look for wheat supplies elsewhere where the supply is much more plentiful – and less expensive.

The trend for wheat futures is down with no bottom yet in price. I will need some type of relief rally before getting short wheat futures.

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Crude Oil Futures Poised for Further Drop on Iraqi Oil Surge

Crude oil futures are hovering just below $45 per barrel and appear for a breakout lower with the forthcoming revelation. The whole breakdown of crude oil prices from OPEC members competing for global customers is about to accelerate with Iraqi oil production.

Oil production from Iraq is actually said to be climbing from a 35-year high as the southern oil fields remain untouched by ISIS militants, and adds a growing supply of oil from the Kurdish region (up north) to its exports. To match buyers with the added production will mean only one thing – offering more attractive incentives to buy than competing rivals of the OPEC nations.

Crude oil futures trend is down with no clear bottom in sight. A decisive move below $45 per barrel can send crude oil futures to its next support level of $40.

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With Chinese Growth Seen Slowing, Copper Futures Near Five-Year Low

Copper futures is realizing the repercussions of the world’s largest industrial metal consumer’s industrial production slowing down. China’s industrial growth has seen its smallest gain in almost 15 years and copper futures is reflecting revelation currently down 900 points in New York’s Commodity Exchange.

Chinese government data reports last year’s metal-consumer’s earnings may have increased, albeit a meager 3.3%, but last month profit slid by 8% – the third straight month of declines. To make matters worst for copper futures, here in the US durable goods orders also fell for the fourth consecutive month and the US is the second biggest user of copper.

The trend for copper futures is nothing but down with new lows made just yesterday. We had a couple of copper futures trades earlier this month, but I need volatility to contract some before getting short this market once again.

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AgFutures Trading Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Gold and Silver

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Copper, Natural Gas, Lean Hogs, British Pound, Euro-FX, Feeder Cattle and Cotton, Coffee, Sugar, Japanese Yen, Soy Oil & Soymeal (These six new this week.)

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

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Corn Futures Lower on Int’l Grain Council’s Supply Outlook

Corn futures are down for the second trading session in a row following the Int’l Grain Council’s speculation that global corn output will exceed another forecast from November. The improved prospects for more corn output is due to South American production which raises the corn estimate for an eight time now.

The London-based group claims that larger corn crops around the globe will put inventories at the end of this current season to levels not seen in 30 years. The group made this claim when they realized corn farmers will reap nearly 10M tons more than previously forecasted.

Corn futures trend is technically “up” in my study and research. This can all change for corn futures if they were to take out $3.75 per bushel this week. We’re about a dime higher as of this writing.

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Forecasts for Bitter Cold Halt Natural Gas Futures Near Lows

Natural gas futures seem to be defining a support-base in this most recent down-trend due to forecasts bitter cold weather returning after the mild weather many have been enjoying this week. Natural gas futures are fluctuating around the $2.90 per btu’s today in New York’s Mercantile Exchange.

Later this month and into February, two-thirds of the eastern portion of the USA is predicted to have “below normal” temperatures while the low in Chicago is expected to be 5 degrees lower than normal sometime during that period. The low’s in New York are predicted to be as much as 11 degrees lower than normal. This has the potential to halt falling natural gas prices which crashed last month.

The trend for natural gas futures is down with clear basing action in progress. Not only does natural gas futures need to hold last week’s low, but a breakout above last week’s high of $3.30 will be in order.

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Gold Futures Reach Five-Month High on Obscure Growth Outlook

Gold futures have reached a five-month high in early morning trading on the outlook of a safe-haven hard-asset amid speculation of sputtering global growth. Gold futures are currently at $1,288 per ounce (up $11) in New York at the Commodity Exchange.

Over the long weekend, in Washington, DC the Int’l Monetary Fund released an aggressive retraction of their global growth forecast of the past three years. They claim a worldwide slowing of growth (except for here stateside) and that it will “more than offset” the expansion boost offered from dwindling crude oil prices. Also recently, the Swiss National Bank shook the markets last week ending a cap to their currency against the Euro which initiated this leg up for gold futures.

Gold futures trend is up with no top yet in sight. I am concerned with the lack of follow-through with gold futures bulls this morning and feel a correction is due…

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AgFutures Trading Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Gold and Silver & Soybean Oil (Both new this week.)

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Crude Oil, Copper, Natural Gas, Lean Hogs, British Pound, Euro-FX and Feeder Cattle (both new this week.)

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

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Commodity Collapse Includes Copper Futures

Copper futures is not immune to the current commodity collapse we are all witnessing recently – predominantly with energy, food, and livestock. It is the lack of global growth that has reigned in the high prices of just about everything, copper futures is no exception (down yesterday as much as 1,450 points in New York’s Commodity Exchange).

Copper prices are down as much as 8.6% in London yesterday and down the daily limit in Shanghai, China. …speaking of which, demand weakness for the industrial metal and lower energy costs combined with worse than expected economic statistics are reportedly driving copper prices down there. Even Deutsche Bank AG claims copper demand will grow at its slowest pace since 2009.

Copper futures are down with no bottom yet in sight. I will require copper futures to demonstrate some type of “relief rally” before looking to get short this market once again.

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