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Welcome to the Agricultural Futures Trading’s agricultural / commodity futures trading blog. Each day our veteran AG Futures Trader provides unique insights into the commodities markets with over 20 year’s experience.  All posts considered to be “of opinion” and professional viewpoint of the author – AG Futures Trading.

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Corn Futures Rise, Then Fall, .75 Cents After Wettest Season in 30 Years

Corn futures, in a one month period, have rallied and retreated .75 cents over precipitation concerns in the corn belt region of the Midwest. Corn futures are up .04 cents going into Thursday’s close currently trading just above $3.82 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

The rains in the state of Illinois alone are prompting state officials there to possibly request federal disaster assistance after receiving the most rain from May to present in the last 30 years! While Illinois is reported to have over 22 inches of rain between May & June, the water-logged fields might not reduce corn yields as much as it appears – according to an expert Midwestern analyst.

The trend for corn futures is down and this particular market has sold off from its mid-July high near $4.55 per bushel with absolutely no retracement from July 14th. Corn futures is a market that the novice trader should stay away from, and for the professional it should require a contraction of volatility before taking any position.

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Summer Slump for Cattle Futures May be Temporary

Cattle futures are said to be following their typical spring high to summer low trading pattern – albeit at much higher beef prices than just a few years ago – but there are signs prices can resume higher once the summer slump has passed. Feeder cattle futures are up today $0.575 cents per pound currently trading at $211.82 (CWT) at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Feeder cattle prices from early April (to present) have fallen almost $22 per pound – a 13% drop in price – but in the five year period from 2010 to 2014 feeder cattle prices have averaged not quite a 10% drop in the same time period. Industry experts claim feeders may continue to drop until mid-August, but find some type of support thereafter.

Feeder cattle futures trend is down with no bottom yet in sight. In my study I find there is support coming in at $206.00 (CWT) which tells me feeder cattle futures can still slip lower from this current level.

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Hog Futures Making Slow Comeback as Record Production Maybe Spurring Demand

Hog futures have halted their first-quarter slide and appear to be making their way higher as record production of hogs is reportedly putting more pork on the menu. Hog futures are up over $1.52 per CWT and are currently trading at $65.07 (CWT) at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Wholesale prices of pork are down 40% since last summer and more restaurants are reportedly buying more of the product to serve and apparently this is creating demand. With prices so low compared to beef, domestic pork production is heading for an all-time high this year.

The trend for hog futures appears to be in a very early stage of an up-trend. Prices are still low enough for pork lovers to enjoy their favorite sandwiches or dishes, but a breakout above $72.00 (CWT) could mean steadily higher prices down the road.

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AgFutures Trading Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets: Soymeal and Soybeans

DOWN Trending Futures Markets: Silver, Gold and Copper

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

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Slowing Demand for Supply Weighing on Copper Futures

Copper futures are said to be spiraling lower not only because demand has been hampered for the raw material, but now there’s confirmation of that by the lack of requests to withdraw copper from the London Metal Exchange warehouses – the lowest since March, 2013. Copper futures is down $4.50 per pound today (as of this writing), currently trading at $2.38 at New York’s Mercantile Exchange.

Copper is used in many things in our daily life, such as car’s, electronic devices and power lines, but stockpiles of the industrial metal have reportedly doubled over the last two years as consumption has all but dried-up. China, the world’s biggest copper consumer, is experiencing slower economic growth hampering demand for the metal, but they are just one country of many.

Copper futures trend is clearly down with no bottom in sight. A bounce higher should be required before traders even consider taking a short position because the risk (volatility) is quite high.

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Crude Oil Futures Back Below $50 on Supply

Crude oil futures traded below $50 per barrel today for the first time since the initial down-move In March took oil prices to the $44 dollar area. Crude oil futures are trading down $1.69 as of this writing currently at $49.14 per barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The analysts reportedly were expecting a drop in supply of nearly TWO MILLION barrels, but the API reported a rise of 2.3M barrels here in the US as of last week – a significant spread. Another report from the Energy Information Administration may show a slightly less amount of crude oil stockpiles as of July 17th.

The technical trend for crude oil is down with no bottom yet in sight. With crude oil below $50 per barrel, maybe us consumers can see gasoline prices reflected lower as well…

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Commodity Prices Crashing to 13-Year Lows

The bench-mark “Bloomberg Commodity Index” has been in freefall for the fifth-day in a row now, which is reportedly the biggest stretch of declines since March. Yesterday the commodity index dropped a reported 1.1% alone with the help of a strengthening dollar and the perceived agreement for higher interest-rates forthcoming..

Gold only yesterday spiraled lower to five-year lows, but not just that market – Brent crude oil, industrial metals, natural gas, and even some agricultural products have been part of this rout in commodity prices. A strong dollar means higher costs for importers commodities, while higher interest-rates make borrowing costs unattractive for anybody.

More than one-half of the markets I trade (all agricultural markets) are in down-trends, or have recently rolled over into down-trends. The few that are still “up” are all at a crossroads, so, time for traders to accept lower commodity futures prices ahead.

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AgFutures Trading Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Soymeal, Corn, Soybeans and CBT Wheat

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Silver, Gold and Copper

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

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Gold Futures Lagging on Greek Restructuring & US Data

Gold futures are down for the fourth straight trading session after mixed-signals with the US economy and the unfolding of the Greek debt crisis. Gold futures are down $2.70 per ounce currently at $1,144.70 at the Commodity Exchange in New York.

Gold – usually viewed as a “safe-haven” for investors amid inflation and world instability – has been lagging despite the sluggish economy in China, the Greek debt crisis becoming larger, and the recent deal on Iran’s nuclear ambition. Here in the US the Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen, is said to be sending indications that current domestic conditions may likely justify hiking-up interest-rates, however the stronger dollar, recent initial jobless claims, and even manufacturing data are all unclear.

The trend for gold futures is down with no bottom yet in sight. A bounce higher in gold futures is becoming overdue in my opinion.

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