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Welcome to the Agricultural Futures Trading’s agricultural / commodity futures trading blog. Each day our veteran AG Futures Trader provides unique insights into the commodities markets with over 20 year’s experience.  All posts considered to be “of opinion” and professional viewpoint of the author – AG Futures Trading.

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AgFutures Trading Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Crude Oil, Feeder Cattle, High-Grade Copper, Soy Oil & Euro-currency

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Coffee, Corn, Soymeal & Soybeans (New this week.)

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

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Copper Futures Higher on Chinese Stimulus Outlook

Copper futures are beginning their rebound today from three-week lows on the outlook that weak Chinese factory activity may prompt the national government to introduce new stimulus measures to turn things around. Copper futures ended Thursday up 225 points at $2.8515 per pound at New York’s Commodity Exchange.

Interestingly it was data released by a popular bank’s “purchasing manager’s” index that revealed China’s data only inched-up by two-tenths of a point (to “49.1”) which missed expectations for better growth and below the benchmark level of “50” which would indicate growth in activity rather than contraction. China is the world’s largest copper consumer and used nearly 40% of copper resources just last year.

The trend for copper futures is up and there is no topping action yet in sight. I suspect the Chinese interest-rate cuts have helped prompt this market higher since its January lows.

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Planting Progress Sends Soybean Futures to Seven-Month Low

Soybean futures have extended their lows today to prices not seen since October as signs of rapid soybean planting progress is taking place across the Midwest last week. Soybean futures are down .04 cents today currently trading near $9.42 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

The USDA has reported nearly 45% of the domestic crop being planted as of this past weekend, which is up a whopping 31% from the week prior. At this same time last year, coincidently nearly 31% was planted. The five-year average is “36%” so you can see we’re well above this too.

Soybean futures trend has resumed down after much sideways trading for the better part of the past two-and-a-half months. I will need some type of pull-back higher before I can enter the short side of this market…

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Cattle Futures Just Off Highs of the Year

Feeder cattle futures have been hovering at these levels for the better part of this month, but are having difficulty following through above $2.20 per pound let alone come close to challenging last year’s highs. The August feeder cattle contract closed down 120 points at $2.17 per pound at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Feeder cattle “asking” prices have been reported to range nearly $100 per hundred-weight depending on what part of the country you’re in, but at the CME they have only been fluctuating between $2-$3 dollars in the past five weeks. Cattle futures may have picked up in the number of slaughtered animals this week, but is still well behind the pace of this time last year.

The trend in cattle futures is up, albeit with little follow-through on higher highs three times this month. The cattle futures market has been teetering back and forth for the past two months and I’m sidelined from this market until a clearer picture emerges.

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AgFutures Trading Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Cotton, Crude Oil, Feeder Cattle, High-Grade Copper, British Pound, Soy Oil & Euro-currency (New this week.)

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Coffee, Corn and Soymeal

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

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Butter Prices On the Rise (Again…)

Butter prices are said to be rising substantially for two-fold reasons: a demand for milk-fat, and a recent drop in production. So what is going on with the domestic butter market that hasn’t seen these high $2 per pound butter prices since November?

California dairy farmers are the nation’s top producers of butter and they have been reportedly struggling with lower profit margins since last year which has caused a 1.5% reduction (that’s 8.8M pounds!) in butter production. In other parts of the nation the dairy-milk supply appears to being devoted toward the making of cheese – at the expense of the consumers of butter.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s spot butter prices – according to my study – are clearly in an uptrend. Before butter prices get too crazy I’m confident the dairy producers will see the profit margin potential to step up production once again. At least from a business prospective this makes sense.

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Plantings Nearly Complete and Emerging Weigh on Wheat Futures

Wheat futures are testing last weeks lows one day after the release of the USDA crop production report and earlier reports of domestic spring wheat planting near completion. Wheat futures are currently down .08 cents today near $4.725 cents per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

A total of six states where 99% of the 2014 spring wheat crop domestic crop was planted are now reporting near completion and well above their five-year average for plantings. The five-year average of 51% of the spring wheat crop planted is being surpassed and currently at “87%” as of May 10th reporting.

The trend for wheat futures continues to be down with the market currently testing the May 5th low. With no bullish news in sight, it will be interesting to see how wheat negotiates heavy support .12 cents lower.

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Cotton Futures Find Two-Week Low Despite Planting Lag

Cotton futures have plummeted to two week lows and are more than 350 points from their early month highs despite USDA reports of cotton planting behind their five-year average. Cotton futures fell another 75 points today to $0.6464 cents per pound at the New York division of the Intercontinental Exchange.

There are 15 states where 99% of the 2014 cotton crop was planted and some states such as Arizona, Arkansas, and Mississippi are well above the five-year average for plantings. Even when these states are averaged with the other 12 states, the five-year average of 32% of the cotton crop planted is only sitting at “26%” as of May 10th reporting.

Despite the recent drop in cotton futures this month, the trend remains up in my study. I would think support for cotton futures should be near-by.

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AgFutures Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts that we have identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the bigger picture changing for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Crude Oil, High-Grade Copper and Cotton, Feeder Cattle, British Pound & Soy Oil (These four new this week.)

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Coffee, Corn Kansas Wheat & Soymeal (New this week.)

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

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