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Welcome to the Agricultural Futures Trading’s agricultural / commodity futures trading blog. Each day our veteran AG Futures Trader provides unique insights into the commodities markets with over 20 year’s experience.

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AgFutures Trading Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Russell 2000 Index

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Coffee, Euro-FX, Soymeal, Natural Gas, Sugar and Kansas Wheat & Soybeans (Both new this week.)

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

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Gold Futures Rally on US Data & Greek Concerns

Gold futures broke out above $1,200 late this week on the outlook of official US data indicating a possible interest-rate hike based on the strength of the economy. Then gold futures turned around for the day about $4 per ounce just under $1,198 per ounce at New York’s Commodity Exchange.

With the US dollar under pressure Wednesday after domestic industrial production showed to fall six-tenths of one percent (the largest drop since the summer of 2012, and twice as weak as economists had expected), the disappointing report rekindled speculation for the Federal Reserve Board to hold off hiking interest-rates anytime soon.

Gold futures trend is technically up, however the market has been trading sideways for almost a month. Gold futures appear to be building a base for another breakout to the upside.

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Chinese GDP Speculation Adds to Copper Futures Choppiness

Copper futures is once again in choppy trading with disappointing Chinese growth data prevailing the speculation that Beijing officials will have to do more to jumpstart their economy. Copper futures ended trading Wednesday at New York’s Commodity Exchange up almost .02c from the day before near $2.72 a pound.

The Chinese economy is said to have grown by 7% in the first quarter – which was forecasted – but down from an expansion rate of 7.3% from the prior quarter. This happens to be the slowest pace of growth for their country since the global financial crisis era in 2008.

The trend for copper futures are at a crossroad. The up-moves in copper fail to have immediate follow through thrust which keep me on the sidelines.

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Wheat Futures Extend Lows on Domestic Rainfall

Wheat futures extended its lows (after yesterday’s spiral) to prices not seen in four weeks after rain had been forecasted in key wheat growing states. Wheat futures ended the trading session near $4.95 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

Traders had been monitoring the precipitation models closely for this news and yesterday’s .24c plunge began the confirmation of this development. Also yesterday, the USDA confirmed the domestic winter wheat crop being rated at 42% “good to excellent” as of April 12th – down from 44% the week earlier, but much better than the “34%” rating this time last year.

Wheat futures trend is at a crossroad – still technically up, but if the market takes out today’s low before trading up to the $5.18 level, that would create the means to be bearish. Wheat futures had been trading sideways for almost three months, but now a clearer picture should be unfolding.

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AgFutures Trading’s Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Russell 2000 Index & Cotton (New this week.)

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Lean Hogs, Coffee, Euro-FX, Sugar, Soymeal, Natural Gas

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

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Final Look at 2014/15 Crop by USDA a Mixed-Bag for Grain Futures

Grain futures were anticipating the USDA’s final look at the 2014/15 crop, but the actual data was mixed. Grain futures ended lower across the board with soybeans down nearly .17c, wheat down .075, and corn down a penny per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

The final ending stocks saw an increase for corn by 50M bushels, a 15M decrease for soybeans, and a seven-million bushel decrease for wheat. The world production saw only a negligible increase in production for all three.

The soy-product futures are still in down-trends, but corn and wheat are still holding on to fragile technical up-trends (in my work). Prices going forward from here should be more in line with weather fluctuations rather than supply since supply from old crop is now a definite known variable.

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Cattle Futures Strengthening but Seasonal Tendency Coming Into Play

Cattle futures are coming off of fresh strength from last month and cattle feedlot managers may be able to squeeze out a few more bucks from the packers because of it. Feeder cattle futures are however, down today about 90 points and are trading at nearly $2.14 per pound at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Cattle futures peaked late last year at the $2.32 level but have been making a run back to these highs since basing in February at the $1.90 support level. Cattle producers are looking to make the most they can before the cattle marketing season begins to seasonally increase.

Cattle futures trend is up (we trade “feeder” cattle” – animals preparing for feedlot use. The cattle futures market is still strong, but as mentioned above the seasonal tendency for beef prices is to decline into the mid-June time frame is fast approaching.

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With Only 2% Planted, Cotton Futures Soar

Cotton futures have blasted-off these past three trading sessions on the outlook of cotton planting being behind schedule. Cotton futures are up 125 points at this time of writing on the InterContinental Exchange – its highest prices since September.

Of the 15 cotton producing states from last year, only “three” are reporting any planting representing 2% of cotton planted as of yet when the five-year average at this time should be 6%. California’s planting lag is the most significant with only 10% planted for the state when 28% was planted this time last year, but then again Texas is only at “1%” planted when 9% was in last April. It’s safe to say the water limitations may be to blame in both those state’s case.

The trend for cotton futures is up as of today. I will be looking for some type of pull-back in cotton futures to get on-board this market.

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AgFutures Trading Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Russell 2000 Index (New this week.)

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Lean Hogs, Coffee, Crude Oil, Euro-FX, Sugar, Soymeal, Japanese Yen, Soy Oil & Natural Gas (New this week.)

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

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