Welcome to the Agricultural Futures Trading’s agricultural / commodity futures trading blog. Each day our veteran AG Futures Trader provides unique insights into the commodities markets with over 18 year’s experience.

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the bigger picture changing for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  (None this week.)

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Kansas Wheat, Sugar, Soymeal, Gold and Cotton,Copper & Silver (These three new this week.)

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

There is current speculation the dry weather in the mid-west may curb yields in Kansas – the biggest domestic production area of winter wheat.  Wheat futures saw the biggest jump today since late April on this revelation.

The USDA reported recently just more than 50% of the Kansas wheat crops were in good or excellent condition which was downgraded from 60% a week prior.  This seems to now conflict with wheat (futures) dropping almost 7% this year as favorable weather assisted crop development.

“(Wheat futures gains…) due to the recent government report showing that only 52% of the Kansas wheat crop is now rated good-to-excellent, as opposed to 60% with that rating the previous week,”  said Barb Levy,chief account executive at Futures & Options Execution in Chicago, regarding the current wheat futures situation.

The trend for wheat futures remains down, and this is the time of year we should see an acceleration to the downside.  Wheat futures are pulling back for a lower-risk selling opportunity at this time…

News from overseas prompted commodity futures traders to cut bullish bets on commodity futures markets the most this year.  With Greece struggling to form a new government, to China’s weaker than expected industrial output, the bleak outlook took its toll on on the commodity futures markets.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission revealed recently money-managers cut their bullish positions across the eighteen different futures markets by almost 20%.  Even the S&P’s Index of 24 raw materials managed to drop almost 7% over a week and a half time period – the biggest slide since the end of 2008.

Chris Hildebrand, vice-president of trading at HighGround Trading Group in Chicago, stated today regarding the current commodity futures situation, “The major consensus is that global growth is slowing down and you can see that in how the markets have reacted over the last couple of weeks.”  Hildebrand added, “Until there is something resolved with these countries and their rolls in the “Euro,” you will continue to see downside pressure on the contract and commodities overall for that matter.”

Most the commodity futures markets we trade had been in strong uptrends, but we’re seeing a possible trend change in the soy complex and in the livestock markets.  While these markets remain volatile, or in a sideways trading pattern, I feel most comfortable on the sidelines

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the bigger picture changing for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  (None this week.)

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Kansas Wheat, Sugar, Soymeal & Gold and Wheat (Both new this week.)

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the bigger picture changing for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Soybeans & Soymeal

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Kansas Wheat, Lean Hogs & Sugar (New this week.)

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

Great news this week!  Our “letters of protest” over the grain (and sugar) market’s trading hours these past few years have been heard:

“CHICAGO, May 1, 2012 /PRNewswire/ — CME Group, the world’s leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, today announced it will expand electronic trading hours in its CBOT grain and oilseed futures and options beginning Monday, May 14, 2012. This will expand market access to CBOT Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Oats and Rough Rice futures and options on CME Globex to 22 hours per day.

‘As we’ve grown our customer base in agricultural commodities around the globe, we’ve received increased interest in expanding market access by providing longer trading hours,’ said Tim Andriesen, Managing Director, Agricultural Commodities and Alternative Investments, CME Group. ‘In particular, customers are looking to manage their price risk in our deep, liquid markets during market-moving events like USDA crop reports. In response to customer feedback, we’re expanding trading hours for our grain and oilseed products to ensure customers have even greater access to these effective price discovery tools.’

Beginning, May 13 for trade date May 14, customers will have expanded access to CBOT corn, soybeans, wheat, soybean meal and soybean oil futures and options on CME Globex as follows:

Sunday to Monday, 5:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. CT

Monday to Friday, 6:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. CT.

Open-outcry trading hours will continue to operate from 9:30 a.m. to 1:15 p.m. CT Monday to Friday.”

The fact that the two hour, fifteen minute, trading blackouts in the mornings are a thing of the past has me excited to be able to trade through the crop reports with confidence.  Over all, when we have traded through the reports we have generally had good luck.  It’s just when we get stung once will it have us thinking twice (“once bitten, twice smitten”).  Those day will be behind us in June.  I am excited for the future!

After a four-year price rally in spot hog prices, increasing Chinese output and heavier and more numerous animals in the US pork supply are creating a surplus that suggest lower hog (futures) prices are imminent.

USDA estimates US farmers will produce almost 120M pigs this year (the most in about 50 years) while world hog production reaches an all-time high of almost 105M metric tons!  Analysts suggest another 10% lower in hog (futures) prices by the end of the year.

Chris Hildebrand, vice-president of trading at HighGround Trading Group in Chicago, stated today regarding the current hog futures situation, “There is a lot of pork in the system, no pun intended. After the last 2 year rise in (pork) prices, farmers have raised more and larger hogs leading to a surplus. Look for the trend to continue down for the near term.”

Hog futures have already seen record high prices, and the current trend is already down.  Before I can sell short hog futures once again, I need a pull-back higher in (pork) prices or a lower risk trade opportunity.  I am being as patient as I can possibly be

Just recently the USDA reported its single biggest export sale of corn since the early 90′s, but apparently corn speculators reduced their long speculative positions just before corn futures rallied the most in a two-day period in almost a month’s time.  Timing is everything in this business…

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission reported (week ending April 24th) the biggest decline of bullish corn futures positions since mid-2010 with 30% of bullish positions being offset.  The CFTC also clarified it was “money managers” reducing their positions.

“Any selloff in old crop corn (futures) should be well supported as ending stocks are quite low and prices will have to stay high in order to ration. Demand from Asia remains quite strong,” said Kevin Craney, Senior Commodities Broker for RJO Futures in Chicago, regarding the current corn futures situation.  Craney added, “China remains an opportunistic buyer of corn, and we should continue to see this kind of demand going forward.”

I don’t feel as if though I am “missing out” on this past corn futures move since the technical trend of corn futures is actually DOWN.  It is even more accurate to say corn futures has been trading “sideways” for the better part of this year.  I am awaiting a clear picture in corn futures before getting involved.

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the bigger picture changing for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Soybeans, Soymeal, & Soy Oil

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Kansas Wheat & Lean Hogs (New this week.)

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!