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Welcome to the Agricultural Futures Trading’s agricultural / commodity futures trading blog. Each day our veteran AG Futures Trader provides unique insights into the commodities markets with over 20 year’s experience.

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AgFutures Trading Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  None at this time.

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Sugar, British Pound, Euro-currency, Copper, Natural Gas, Soybean Oil, and Crude Oil

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

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Wheat Futures Extend Gains as Russian Weather Threatens New Plants

Wheat futures continue their ascent higher on the outlook cold weather in the Russian wheat growing region possibly damaging recently planted crops that haven’t yet begun winter dormancy. Wheat futures are up for the day .045 cents per bushel (near $5.27) as of this writing.

A prominent weather forecaster says low temperatures today in the crop regions of Russia are expected to be well below freezing and continue through the weekend. Other experts say dry weather there has already deteriorated crop conditions leaving newer plants more susceptible to frost.

Wheat (futures) enjoyed spill over buying from the soybean and corn markets today. The wheat market shrugged off disappointing export sales and continued to trade higher,” said Kevin Craney, Director of Managed Futures at RJO Futures in Chicago, sharing his insight regarding the current wheat futures situation. Craney added, All eyes will remain on weather conditions in the Black Sea region and it will affect their winter wheat.”

The trend for wheat futures has turned up earlier this month. With little follow-through to the upside for wheat futures, I would prefer to go long these markets on the next pull-back in price.

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Economic Circumstances Cutting Hedge Demand Stalls Gold Futures

Gold futures has stalled and is failing to follow-through to the upside as a stronger US dollar and muted inflation data is said to be cutting demand for the precious metal as a hedging tool. Gold futures are down $6.50 per ounce at $1,245.20, but have been $10 lower so far this trading session.

The government reported today the cost of living here in the US barely edged higher last month, while the greenback is realizing its second day of gains against other major currencies. Plus, holdings of bullion-backed global exchange traded products are reportedly near a five-year low with money-managers reducing their bullish holdings in eight of the past nine weeks.

Gold purchases have subsided over the near term due to a strong US dollar and expected low inflation for the foreseeable future,” said Kevin Riordan, director of research at Capital Trading Group in Chicago, sharing his insight regarding the current gold futures situation.

Gold futures technical trend has recently turned “up,” however with little follow-through. We are short gold futures since last week but am having a difficult time maintaining a long position in “mini-gold” futures.

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Soybean Futures Rising With Increased US Exports

Soybean futures are finding higher support levels as the month progresses, this week soybeans are climbing on a couple of factors: signs of increased export sales, and a slower than anticipated harvest progress due to weather. Soybean futures are up .20 cents per bushel in Chicago as of this writing.

As of last week, USDA data reveals inspections for soybean exports have risen almost 25% since last month (compared to this same time last year). The USDA has also recently stated soybean farmers have only harvested 53% of their crops – as of this past Sunday – when compared to the five-year average for this time of year of “66%” that “should” be harvested.

Soybean-meal demand is leading beans higher. Harvest delays are preventing end users from obtaining much needed soybeans for crush,” said Craig Turner, a senior broker for Daniels Trading in Chicago, sharing his insight regarding the current soybean futures situation. Turner added, “While the (soybean futures) market is now trying to flush out as many beans from storage as possible with higher prices, keep in mind that eventually harvest will be back on track, the bean pipeline will be restocked, and never underestimate the ability of the American Farmer to harvest a massive amount of acres in a relatively short time.”

The trend for soybean futures is technically “down,” however soymeal futures are leading the soy-complex with a strong recently emerged up-trend. I need more price structure to trade out before a clearer picture can be determined, but I am happy to participate in soymeal futures while on the sidelines of the parent contract.

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AgFutures Trading Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, I update my personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is my professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, I monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts that I have identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the bigger picture changing for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Feeder Cattle and Coffee & 10yr. T-Notes (Both new this week.)

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Crude Oil, Lean Hogs, Copper, Natural Gas, Sugar, Soybeans, Russell 2000 Index, British Pound, Euro-currency, and Cotton (New this week.)

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

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US Dryness Putting Focus on Record Crop Weighs on Corn Futures

Corn futures continue to be weighed down for a second trading day as a new outlook for drier weather in the Midwest’s corn-belt shift views back to expectations for a record crop from harvest delays just last week. Corn futures have found support at $3.45 per bushel today which is just over .13 cents from high’s only yesterday.

A prominent weather group forecasts “very limited rain” over the next couple weeks and this dry-spell should allow the corn harvest to get back on schedule. American farmers are expected to reap the biggest corn (and soybean!) harvest…ever.

The trend for corn futures has only recently turned up in an emerging new trend early this week. We can still see another test of the corn futures low from the very beginning of this month before this trend either emerges, or trades sideways into the next seasonal low time period in December.

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Copper Futures About-Face on Demand Risk

Copper futures did a complete “about-face” today after yesterday’s run-up to the $3.10 level. Copper futures are back trading below $3.00 today after it was learned weaker US & Chinese inflation numbers are signaling slowing economies and less industrial metals demand.

Separate domestic and Chinese reports today revealed for the first time in a year, US wholesale prices fell unexpectedly last month. At the same time, reports from China show costs to consumers there rose at the slowest pace in almost five years. The significance here is these two countries represent the planet’s biggest copper consumers.

Disappointing economic data continues to weigh on the copper (futures) market. With Europe’s economy in shambles, any signs of a slowdown in the US could put the nail in the coffin for anything industrial, particularly copper,” said Devin Brady, President of Progressive Trading Group in Sherman Oaks, CA, sharing his insight regarding the current copper futures situation.

The trend for copper futures, although technically down, have been choppy at best. I will consider shorting copper futures on a pullback soon.

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Harvest Delays Spike Soybean Futures to Three-Week Highs

Soybean futures have spiked to a three-week high today on the outlook that precipitation will cause a delay of the domestic harvest. The US is the world’s largest producer of soybeans, so soybean futures are quite sensitive to domestic soybean news.

Although drier weather is expected closer to the end of the week, the rain in certain areas of the Mid-West will hinder the soybean harvest with any severe weather said to be unfavorable for the mature soybean crops. The USDA reported earlier this month that this year’s oilseed harvest is trailing the average of the previous five years.

The soybean futures are responding higher to the heavy rains and near freezing temperatures across much of the Midwest, that is keeping the farmers from being able to get the combines into the fields to harvest their crops,” said Barb Levy, chief director for The Fox Group’s futures division in Chicago, sharing her insight regarding the current soybean futures situation. Levy added,Additional support is coming from the potential for higher overseas demand for the large U.S. (soybean) crop.”

Soybean futures trend is technically down, however a bottom appears to possibly being put in place. I am still looking for another test of the low for soybean futures, but acknowledge we may have had our last short trade if volatility doesn’t contract at these upper levels.

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AgFutures Trading Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Feeder Cattle

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Soybeans, Kansas Wheat, Sugar, Corn, British Pound, Euro-currency, Japanese Yen, CBT Wheat, Gold, Copper, Natural Gas, Russell 2000 Index, Soybean Oil and Crude Oil & Lean Hogs (These two new this week.)

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

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