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Welcome to the Agricultural Futures Trading’s agricultural / commodity futures trading blog. Each day our veteran AG Futures Trader provides unique insights into the commodities markets with over 20 year’s experience.

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AgFutures Trading Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Corn, CBT Wheat, KCBT Wheat, 10yr. T-Notes and S&P 500 Index (New this week.)

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Crude Oil, Copper, Natural Gas, Sugar, Coffee and Lean Hogs & Euro-FX (Both new this week.)

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

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Russian Shipment Slowdown Spikes Wheat Futures

Wheat futures is reflecting the plight of the Russian Ruble, it seems. Since the ruble is spiraling downward, increasing the costs for food items – mainly bread – the Russian government is taking measures to slow the release of grain from its ports, which in turn is sending wheat futures prices at the Chicago Board of Trade to wheat prices not seen since May.

A Russian spokesperson stated today their country’s “main goal is to replenish the domestic market” and they are reportedly doing this by interfering with the certificates needed by grain buyers and sellers once sanitary inspections have been completed. At the same time, Russia’s president has warned his countrymen this current economic crisis could drag on for as long as two years, so this might provide a better understanding of their fight to ease sky-rocketing food prices.

Wheat futures trend is up with no top yet in sight. I would prefer wheat futures to correct with a significant pull-back in price before getting back long, but I will look for other ways to enter as well.

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Corn Futures Strong as China Lifting Import Ban on GMO Corn

Corn futures remains at lofty levels after the Chinese government is said to have lifted its ban on genetically-modified corn. China has recently purchased 900,000 metric tons of corn in lieu of lifting this ban.

A report today from the China National Grain & Oils Information Center claims their country has contracts for 15 cargoes of “dried distillers grain” for shipment between this month through the first quarter. China is now the largest buyer of this corn by-product otherwise known as “DDGS” – the result produced once starch has been stripped from corn for ethanol production use.

The trend for corn futures has been up since early October with no top yet in sight. I exited our long corn position one week ago today just before the monthly crop report in anticipation of the “December seasonal low” which hasn’t happened yet. I am still looking for a way back in the long side of corn futures.

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Regulations to Accommodate Hens to Affect the Egg Market

The egg market is in for a shell-shock next month when legislation from California catches-up to everybody from the producer to the consumer. Voters in the state approved a law which calls for egg-laying hens to have “more space” in their hen houses to ensure the birds are allowed to lay down, stand up, extend their wings, and dance around (I cannot make this up!).

The price of USDA Grade AA Extra Large, and Grade AA Large, eggs may have been .02c slightly lower yesterday in New York’s cash market, but starting next month when the legislation comes into effect we should start seeing prices holding to higher over time. Farmers around the country that sell eggs to the Golden State will either have to comply with larger cages for their birds, or have less birds in existing cages (which implies culling their flock).

On a national scale, wholesale egg prices average a record $2.77 per dozen which is up 34% from the year before. With this new law coming into effect, a Iowa university professor claims the amount Californians themselves will pay can be as much as 20% within three to six months into next year.

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AgFutures Trading Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Corn, CBT Wheat, KCBT Wheat & 10yr. T-Notes (New this week.)

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Crude Oil, Copper, British Pound, Japanese Yen, Natural Gas, Sugar and Coffee (New this week.)

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

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Butter Futures Expected Lower With Milk Production Increase

Butter eaters around the world will delight with an extra helping as wholesale milk prices continue to drop from all-time highs in September. Dairies have kept the milk flowing like never before the former high milk (futures) prices have helped to expand production around the world.

USDA data shows farmers have taken advantage of the spike in milk prices as well as low animal-feed costs which has sent production for the year ending in October up almost 2% from the same period last year. Top producers around the globe are contributing to the global milk glut with our domestic dairy exports dropping to a year and a half low.

As with falling oil (lowering transportation costs) and overall commodity prices, milk futures and butter futures are not immune to glut prices. We don’t trade butter futures or milk futures from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, but this human interest story is out to assure the financially “tapped-out” public that the pendulum does indeed swing the other way!

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USDA’s Raised Forecast for Global Crops Tempers Grain Futures

Soybean futures, wheat futures, and corn futures have all retreated from recent gains after the USDA released it’s monthly crop production report this morning. They have once again raised their forecast on global grain supplies which continue to drive down food costs.

The USDA says the expanding crops are due to bigger than expected crops in both China and Europe. With the global forecast raised for soybean production, the USDA expects soybean inventories to peak-out at an all-time high.

Grain futures trends are all over the board, so let’s go over each complex: Corn futures trend is technically up, but appears topped out as of last month and due for a “double-bottom.” The soybean futures complex has beans at a crossroad (technical down in my work), soybean oil futures technically up, but appearing weak, and soybean meal futures technically up – but trading sideways for the past two months. Wheat futures trend is still up and I expect the market to resume up into next month (at best).

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Cattle Futures Finding Support as News of Beef Imports Increasing

Cattle futures have paused at recent highs from early October as news of the US domestic herd is updated – and it’s not looking good. Exports of beef to the US is reportedly jumping 35% for the 2014-2015 fiscal year to amounts not seen since 2004-2005 (according to a recent report from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics and Sciences).

If you may recall from previous postings, the US cattle herd started the year at a record-low number of animals not seen since 1951 after prolonged years of drought forced cattle ranchers to cull their herds. This will help the Australian beef industry significantly as they are already reporting as much as 35% of their exports going to US dinner tables.

The trend for cattle futures is up with no bottom yet in sight. This cattle futures market is one where we must trade with caution in light of the limit up/down days we have been seeing in recent trading sessions.

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AgFutures Trading Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Corn, CBT Wheat, NASDAQ & S&P 500 Indices and KCBT Wheat & Russell 2000 Index (Both new this week.)

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Euro-currency, Crude Oil, Copper, British Pound, Japanese Yen and Natural Gas & Sugar (Both new this week.)

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

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