Welcome!

Welcome to the Agricultural Futures Trading’s agricultural / commodity futures trading blog. Each day our veteran AG Futures Trader provides unique insights into the commodities markets with over 20 year’s experience.

Share

AgFutures Trading Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  S&P 500 Index, Corn, Soymeal, Soybeans (All new this week.)

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Sugar, Euro-currency, Copper, Soybean Oil, Crude Oil and Silver (New this week.)

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

Share

Livestock & Poultry Spark Biggest Soybean Meal Feed-Price Rally Since 1974

Soybean meal futures are seeing it’s biggest monthly gains in four decades as livestock & poultry feed made from soybeans is soaring due to rail-trains not being able to get feed to the animals fast enough. Soybean meal futures are down over $15 per ton currently trading at $381 in Chicago (as of this writing).

The “Association of American Railroads” date show weekly speed-train (deliveries) fell last week to the slowest rates since Spring of 2010 – while terminal waiting delays rose to its highest level since July. Soybean meal futures have spiked 31% this month alone with meat prices hovering near record highs spurring the current soy-feed demand against current shipping delays from processing plants in the Midwest.

Barb Levy, chief director for The Fox Group’s futures division in Chicago, shared her insight regarding the current soybean meal futures situation by stating today, (Soybean meal futures) surged higher this week due in large part to farmers holding back supplies rather than selling them at recent low prices. Livestock farmers account for the large demand for soymeal as they are sitting on large herds, and are trying to deal with the tight supply situation and delivery difficulties due to problems with transportation of the product.”

Soybean meal futures are clearly up with no top yet in sight. I exited our soybean meal futures position prematurely when it appeared a pull-back was in order. I am looking for a way back in…

Share

Wheat Futures Grinding Higher on Russian Cold

December Wheat futures are extending their recent gains today, up already more than 12% this month with its biggest gain monthly gain since March. December Wheat futures are currently up .09 cents at $5.3975 per bushel.

An agriculture weather group reportedly wrote in a report today that lower temperatures in wheat growing regions in Russia are expected to stump the growth of up to two-thirds of the Russian crop – ultimately pushing the wheat crop into winter dormancy. The temperatures are working against further wheat growth along with 60% less than normal rainfall in most of the growing region this past month.

Laura Taylor, a senior commodities broker at RJO Futures in Chicago, shared her insight regarding the current wheat futures situation by stating today, The wheat (futures) market is finding technical support of large fund short position with all contracts trading above the 50-day moving averages. Concerns about dry and cold conditions in Russia winter what regions and dry conditions in Australia are seen mildly supportive for the wheat’s.”

The trend for wheat futures has newly emerged as up. I am only interested in taking the “long” signals at this points and expect this trend to last into the end of the year, or beginning of the next.

Share

Livestock Feed Demand Boosts Soybean Futures

Soybean futures have quickly rebounded this month to prices not seen since late August on the outlook of “feed demand” rising from domestic livestock and poultry producers. Soybean futures have since backed-off their highs by .25c already this morning currently trading at $10.16 per bushel, and soybean meal futures have given-up their entire gains at this time, currently “unchanged” from yesterday’s close after giving-up $22 per ton from its highs.

Yesterday’s spectacular soybean meal futures 7.6% gain – a one-day rise not seen since 2007 – is a reflection of the need for livestock feed in an attempt to meet demand. Currently it is reported the US railways are tied up with much energy products being delivered around the country which means some livestock producers could potentially be delayed in receiving feed for their animals.

Nicholas Medina, a futures and options specialist for Capital Trading Group in Chicago, shared his insight regarding the current soybean futures situation by stating today, The grain producers, especially (of) soybeans, are feeling the effects of increased competition from the emerging energy producers in the U.S. Medina added, Prior to the boom of natural gas in the U.S., grain producers could easily move their products after harvest, that has all changed now and with a record harvest in grains, railways have the upper hand and will price out their services to the highest bidder.”

Soybean futures have made a complete turn-around in trend this past month. We have already exited our long soybean futures position this morning when it was realized the market couldn’t hold its gains. This is a newly developed up-trend and I have a feeling there is much more to come. Stay tuned…

Share

AgFutures Trading Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  None at this time.

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Sugar, British Pound, Euro-currency, Copper, Natural Gas, Soybean Oil, and Crude Oil

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

Share

Wheat Futures Extend Gains as Russian Weather Threatens New Plants

Wheat futures continue their ascent higher on the outlook cold weather in the Russian wheat growing region possibly damaging recently planted crops that haven’t yet begun winter dormancy. Wheat futures are up for the day .045 cents per bushel (near $5.27) as of this writing.

A prominent weather forecaster says low temperatures today in the crop regions of Russia are expected to be well below freezing and continue through the weekend. Other experts say dry weather there has already deteriorated crop conditions leaving newer plants more susceptible to frost.

Wheat (futures) enjoyed spill over buying from the soybean and corn markets today. The wheat market shrugged off disappointing export sales and continued to trade higher,” said Kevin Craney, Director of Managed Futures at RJO Futures in Chicago, sharing his insight regarding the current wheat futures situation. Craney added, All eyes will remain on weather conditions in the Black Sea region and it will affect their winter wheat.”

The trend for wheat futures has turned up earlier this month. With little follow-through to the upside for wheat futures, I would prefer to go long these markets on the next pull-back in price.

Share

Economic Circumstances Cutting Hedge Demand Stalls Gold Futures

Gold futures has stalled and is failing to follow-through to the upside as a stronger US dollar and muted inflation data is said to be cutting demand for the precious metal as a hedging tool. Gold futures are down $6.50 per ounce at $1,245.20, but have been $10 lower so far this trading session.

The government reported today the cost of living here in the US barely edged higher last month, while the greenback is realizing its second day of gains against other major currencies. Plus, holdings of bullion-backed global exchange traded products are reportedly near a five-year low with money-managers reducing their bullish holdings in eight of the past nine weeks.

Gold purchases have subsided over the near term due to a strong US dollar and expected low inflation for the foreseeable future,” said Kevin Riordan, director of research at Capital Trading Group in Chicago, sharing his insight regarding the current gold futures situation.

Gold futures technical trend has recently turned “up,” however with little follow-through. We are short gold futures since last week but am having a difficult time maintaining a long position in “mini-gold” futures.

Share

Soybean Futures Rising With Increased US Exports

Soybean futures are finding higher support levels as the month progresses, this week soybeans are climbing on a couple of factors: signs of increased export sales, and a slower than anticipated harvest progress due to weather. Soybean futures are up .20 cents per bushel in Chicago as of this writing.

As of last week, USDA data reveals inspections for soybean exports have risen almost 25% since last month (compared to this same time last year). The USDA has also recently stated soybean farmers have only harvested 53% of their crops – as of this past Sunday – when compared to the five-year average for this time of year of “66%” that “should” be harvested.

Soybean-meal demand is leading beans higher. Harvest delays are preventing end users from obtaining much needed soybeans for crush,” said Craig Turner, a senior broker for Daniels Trading in Chicago, sharing his insight regarding the current soybean futures situation. Turner added, “While the (soybean futures) market is now trying to flush out as many beans from storage as possible with higher prices, keep in mind that eventually harvest will be back on track, the bean pipeline will be restocked, and never underestimate the ability of the American Farmer to harvest a massive amount of acres in a relatively short time.”

The trend for soybean futures is technically “down,” however soymeal futures are leading the soy-complex with a strong recently emerged up-trend. I need more price structure to trade out before a clearer picture can be determined, but I am happy to participate in soymeal futures while on the sidelines of the parent contract.

Share

AgFutures Trading Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, I update my personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is my professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, I monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts that I have identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the bigger picture changing for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Feeder Cattle and Coffee & 10yr. T-Notes (Both new this week.)

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Crude Oil, Lean Hogs, Copper, Natural Gas, Sugar, Soybeans, Russell 2000 Index, British Pound, Euro-currency, and Cotton (New this week.)

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

Share
Free Report
Receive Actual Trading Statements, & a Special Insider Report: 5 Key Trading Foundation Points

Futures Trading Report
 

Please note that it
takes a minimum
of $10,000 to effectively
trade these portfolios!
 
*First Name:
*Last Name:
*E-mail:
*Day Phone with
Area Code:

Categories

Follow Us on Twitter