The world’s largest pork consumer (China) is expected to make big purchases of US grain for livestock feed to keep up with their growing demand.  Corn futures are said to have rose today on this news.

The USDA has reported US farmers sold 120 metric tons of corn for delivery after September 1st.  China’s agricultural grain office hinted that they are looking to buy corn (futures) at the $5.50 per bushel area.

“Rumors have been floating around regarding China buying US corn to help shore up their supply for the last couple of months now. We have not see any huge one-time purchases, but it has kept the market a bit choppy. I would still be a buyer of dips in the market until we get into full season here in the states and then see how the growing season goes from there,” said Chris Hildebrand, vice-president of trading for HighGround Trading Group in Chicago, regarding the current corn futures situation.

The trend for corn futures is officially down, but this market has been trading absolutely sideways since the beginning of the year.  However, now this is the seasonal time of the year for corn futures to be heading northward, so we may be looking at more chop in the very near future

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the bigger picture changing for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Soybeans, Soymeal, and Soy Oil

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Kansas Wheat

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

As drought rampages crops in the South American growing regions, the demand for edible (cooking) oils is seen climbing to record highs.  In the end (of harvest season), it is predicted the public will be left with the smallest of global stockpiles not seen since the 70′s.

According to USDA calculations, various cooking & food oil’s usage are expected to rise nearly 4% this current year, decreasing the ratio of reserves to demand not seen since 1977.  Palm oil usage alone is expected to rise almost 9%.

“Edible (soybean) oil supplies are going to start tightening quickly.  The tightness from the South American harvest and with less acres here in the states for soybeans this season will lead to a supply problem in the near future,” said Chris Hildebrand, vice-president of trading for HighGround Trading Group in Chicago, regarding the current soybean oil futures situation.  Hildebrand added, “We are not even close to seeing a peak in (soybean oil futures) prices, so buy dips and look to hold the oils over the near term.”

The trend for soybean oil futures, and the entire soy-complex has been up since early this year – well before the seasonal trend.  We’ve been riding this trend the whole time, and we just resumed trading with the trend in soybean oil futures and soybean futures today.

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the bigger picture changing for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Soybeans, Soymeal, and Soy Oil (New this week.)

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Kansas Wheat (New this week.)

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

Some in the industry are predicting over a 7% increase in wheat inventory this year, and record output next year as well.  If wheat output goes as planned, the record output numbers are said to have exceeded only twice in history.

Farmers are currently preparing to reap the third biggest wheat harvest on record and as a result, wheat futures are falling for a second year as supplies only add to the global stockpiles.  Current wheat stockpiles are at an all-time high amid record-high food prices.

“There is a lot of wheat in the world, and the winter wheat crop in the United States is of to an excellent start.  Fundamentally, these two factors along with modest demand increase expectations will pressure wheat prices going forward,”  stated Kevin Craney, a senior commodities broker for RJO Futures in Chicago, regarding the current wheat futures situation.  Craney added, “Wheat prices will continue to be a function of corn prices, and I think that there is more downside for new crop corn prices as we advance through the spring planting season.”

The trend for wheat futures has been trading sideways since the beginning of the year, and I anticipate a downside breakout soon.  I am specifically looking for lower risk trades to get short this market (and hopefully we have one tomorrow

Tomorrow it may be verified that US corn reserves are the lowest in over fifteen years when the USDA releases its monthly crop progress report.  This has the potential to both increase everyday food and fuel prices, as well as provide the beginnings of a strong summer trend.

The USDA could be expecting as much as 37%+ lower corn inventory than this time last year.  On another note, soybean inventories can also be expected to be forecasted less.

Chris Hildebrand, vice-president of trading at HighGround Trading Group in Chicago, stated this today regards the current corn futures situation, “Stocks are tight and the report tomorrow may further everyone’s expectations for higher prices going forward in the grain markets. Immediately we may have a move up and then a pause, but look to be a buyer on dips with a tight risk as this could be a good summer trend.”

The trend for corn futures is still technically “DOWN,” but higher highs than last week has the potential to change the trend back to upward.  Whichever way it decides to go, we just need follow-through direction to trade with a solid trend – we haven’t had these conditions since the end of last year.

With worsening drought conditions in South America, there is the outlook global soybean harvests will be less than expected and more demand for US soybean supplies.  Soybean futures are up for a second week in a row on this news.

Brazil has the district status as the world’s second biggest soybean producer, but the USDA expects the once estimated 68.5M ton forecast to now be shy by 2.5M tons.  This soybean shortage comes at a time of growing Asian demand…

“Soybean (futures) continue to lead all grains higher.  With continued rumors of production cuts’ coming from South America this continues to support the soybean market. As we move into the spring planting season we should continue to see new crop soybeans bid for acres and trade higher,” stated Kevin Craney, a senior commodities broker for R.J. O’Brien Futures in Chicago, in regards to the current soybean futures situation.

The trend for the entire soybean futures complex remains up with no “top” in sight.  We are long all three soybean futures markets contracts going into the long Easter Holiday.  Have a great weekend!

After a huge reversal to the upside on Friday, wheat futures has backed-off the highs for a second day.  The current wheat futures outlook is two-fold: recent rain in the US , Russia, and Ukraine have favorable for crop conditions, and investors are not betting on central banking stimulus.

Specifically, the winter wheat growing areas in the US Great Plains have had over 1″ of rain recently, and another inch of rain is predicted over the next week.  Then it was learned in the March 13th fed meeting’s minutes they will refrain from printing more money unless certain conditions happen.

Chris Hildebrand, vice-president of trading at HighGround Trading Group in Chicago, stated today in an e-mail interview regarding the current wheat futures situation, “The weather has been very favorable for the winter wheat crops this week and should give them some much needed moisture.  The outside forces on the market though may keep wheat prices pinned in the current range to slightly lower. We are really getting a lot of  “risk off” trading across all commodities except for the USD coming into the long weekend which could help drive price a bit lower from here.”

The trend for wheat futures is technically down, but has been trading more sideways since the beginning of the year.  I will continue to look for lower risk trades in the direction of the trend, and at opportune times

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the bigger picture changing for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Soybeans, Soymeal, and Sugar

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Coffee, Live Cattle and Lean Hogs (New this week.)

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

The discrepancy between the private estimates vs. official government estimates of the current corn reserves seems to be right in the ball-park of the country of Russia’s annual consumption.  This gap in estimation has been causing volatile corn futures price swings at a time of record breaking food costs.

The USDA estimates for corn have been off by approximately 5.7 tons in each of the past seven quarters.  This amount is twice as much as in the past five years alone!

“Analyst estimates have really thrown a proverbial ‘wrench’ into markets over the last year.  We are seeing estimate either too low, or too high, and the markets have been doing nothing but reacting to news and numbers.  Overall the industry has to do a better job in reporting otherwise we are going to continue to chop around based on estimates,” stated Chris Hildebrand, vice-president of trading at HighGround Trading Group in Chicago, regarding the current corn futures situation.

The trend for corn futures is technically up, but has been rather sideways since the beginning of the year.  I will continue to look for lower risk trades in the direction of the trend, and at opportune times.