Archive for the ‘Crude Oil Futures’ Category

With retail sales falling only slightly than expected, and stock indices back on the march, crude oil futures took the opportunity to rally and close more than $2.60 per barrel.  This is amongst the biggest gain of the past four weeks.

NYMEX Crude Oil futures are still at a significant discount to Brent crude oil, but when the US Commerce Department announced retail purchases dropping only .2% in May, the lower than expected figure helped crude oil futures gain over 2% today – closing near it’s highs of the day.

“Fears that China’s economy may experience a hard landing are beginning to abate due to better than expected economic data,” said Jordan Luckey, a commodity broker with RJO Futures of Chicago.  “The charts on WTI crude (oil futures) also show great support between $95 and $96 dollars a barrel,” added Luckey.

Although front-month crude oil futures have climbed over 30% in the past year, the market has been at a crossroads the past month-and-a-half – after the early May sell-off.  I am sidelined in this market for now.

With the near-term outlook that fuel demand growth will weaken, crude oil futures plummeted the most in three weeks after recent data showed the US has added less jobs than anticipated and manufacturing has cooled.  Crude oil futures have been range-bound lately trying to breakout above it’s recent lows.

An Arizona-based study group reported for the month of May only 38,000 jobs added to the economy – the smallest in almost a year.  To make matters worst, they also reported factory output decreased to levels not seen in two years.  Crude Oil futures responded negatively to the news.

“Weaker then expected manufacturing and employment data propelled the equity markets downward pulling crude along side them,” said James Lombardo today – a senior trading advisor with RJ O’Brien Futures in Chicago.  “Manufacturing has slowed according to the ISM Manufacturing Index, adding additional stress on concerns for crude (oil) demand,” he added.

The trend for crude oil futures is still up, as long as the market can continue to trade above it’s recent lows.  I am receiving mixed signals from this market and will continue to look for lower-risk opportunities.

A recent US Department of Energy report revealed gasoline inventories declined to levels not seen since August of 2009.  This news sent crude oil futures to a two week high.

Crude oil futures climbed just about one-half percent once the D.O.E. reported the petrol fuel supplies dropped over 2.5M barrels to a level near 205M barrels this time last week.  Crude oil (futures) prices had initially dropped on a brief gain of stockpiles and increased exports.

Hector Galvan, senior commodity trading advisor with RJO Futures in Chicago stated today, “Crude (oil futures) was propelled higher in price on the fact that the dollar is once again plunging to lows not seen since 2008.  Investors put to one side the fact that the (crude oil futures) market had a build of 6.2 million barrels on an expected 1.4 million barrel day.  The thought now is that with the dollar on its back and the June contract nearing a new weekly high that we may be in store for moves to and beyond $115 (per barrel).”

The trend for crude oil futures is still up with no top yet in sight.  We have been looking to buy long this market, but the market appears to be losing upward momentum near the recent highs…

Inventories of gasoline reportedly sank the most in the past 12 years according to the latest government report.  Crude oil futures were up only slightly following the news that some refineries have been idle whilst demand climbs.

The US Department of Energy reported gasoline supplies dropped by 7M barrels just last week.  This in lieu of a forecast of only 1M barrels expected, plus fuel consumption is said to have climbed the most in five months recently.

James Lombardo, senior trading advisor at RJO Futures in Chicago stated today in an e-mail interview, “With summer driving season around the corner there is a definite concern about gasoline supplies.  Crude (oil futures) prices will react accordingly despite the current high prices.   Consumers will have to take on the burden of higher (crude oil futures) prices at the pump.”

The trend for crude oil futures continues to be up, with no top yet in sight.  We have a major pull-back in progress at this time, but not yet to the price I’d like to see it drop to.  I’ll keep a close eye on this market.

As the ongoing civil dispute continues in Libya, concerns are said to be mounting about crude oil supply exports from that country.  Crude oil futures are now at 2.5 year highs on this anxiety.

Crude oil prices have advanced over 15% just this year over the North African & Middle East unrest, and the up trend in (crude oil) prices appear to have no top in sight.  This is at a time when American gasoline stockpiles are said to be at their lowest levels so far this year.

“Fighting in Libya has halted its (crude) oil exports, losing 1.3 mil barrels a day.  No one knows when it will make its way back into supply,” stated James Lombardo, senior broker and trading advisor at RJO Futures in Chicago.  Lombardo adds, “As tensions continue to sweep through the Middle East there will be a fear premium in (crude) oil.  Expect high volatility in crude oil (futures) to continue.”

Crude oil futures are now at their highest price since early fall of 2008, again, with no market “top” yet in sight.  Some analysts in the industry are calling for crude oil futures to see $150 per barrel once again…

Libya, the third largest crude oil producing nation in Africa, is still under siege from rebels trying to get out of grip of its 40-year dictatorship.  Venezuelan officials offered to step in and mediate the two sides, and this gesture brought crude oil futures down from its two-and-a-half year highs.

It reported Libyan army deserters have helped secure national crude oil facilities in the rebel stronghold around the Gulf of Sidra.  This, too, has also helped to bring crude oil futures down to more reasonable pricing.

Jordan Luckey, a senior trading advisor at RJO Futures, said today, “Venezuela has become involved in organizing and mediating the Libya oil conflict, which has stopped crude (oil futures) in its tracks and the market appears to be a little overbought.  However, any type of disruption in this “mediation” or in the Middle East in general, could pose a bullish threat for a move through the Feb. 24 spike high of 103.41.”

The unrest in the Middle-East & North African region has brought crude oil futures out of a down-trend these past few weeks.  I am looking for a pull-back in this market and a “low-risk” buying opportunity.

For the first time in over two years, crude oil futures reached $100 per barrel on the outlook that Libya’s violence threatens to disrupt crude oil exports not only from that country, but eventually other Middle East crude oil producers.

Crude oil futures only climbed after more turmoil in the capital city of Tripoli erupted, Libyan army units defected, and Libyan insiders leaking word that the regime may be toppled in hours/days.  To help quell crude oil output concerns, the Saudi leader implied in a statement they would compensate for any crude oil production loss from Libya.

Head of trading operations at Global Futures Trading & Exchange Company’s Managed Futures Division, Bret Aaron said today from Encino, California, “The Middle East effect is what’s really driving the (crude oil futures) markets now. The biggest concern that has helped catapult (crude) oil prices to highs not seen since the fall of 2008 is that the unrest in Libya will spread to other countries If events keep developing at this pace it is hard to persuade investors that events will not spill over into Saudi Arabia.  Traders are deeply concerned of the spillover effect, and that fear is likely to continue to keep (crude) oil prices soaring.”

The trend for crude oil futures has been “down” from choppy trading conditions, but appears to be in the midst of a trend change back UP – if we can make “higher highs” in the next trading day, or two.  This is a market that must be traded with caution!

The outlook for the Suez Canal crude oil trade to be disrupted by the Egyptian unrest has subsided.  Crude Oil futures at the NYMEX subsequently dropped from a two-year high.

With no disruptions occurring at this point in the civil uprising, officials commented that shipping is moving normally through the straights carrying more than 2.2M barrels of crude oil each day.  An OPEC official even stated if the unrest interfered with supplies getting to customers, OPEC would increase output.

BNP Paribas Commodity Futures broker, Tom Bentz, added today “The unrest in Egypt has no impact on (crude) oil movements and OPEC has said that they would make up for any disruption.  We (crude oil futures) rallied strongly over the last two days and are now taking a pause.  The premium is shrinking a bit.”

Crude oil futures are still “up” over 20% from this time last year.  This market is hovering in the same range it’s been of the past two months.  I am only looking for “low-risk” entries here.

Once the Saudi Oil Minister signaled OPEC may increase production to meet rising demand, crude oil futures plummeted to lows not seen since early December.  The trend for crude oil futures appears to be switching from up to down if the market can soon take out today’s lows.

In the past couple of months I have come across news stating crude oil prices are “fair” between $60 – $70 per barrel, and then I have read crude oil futures to target $100 (per barrel).  Now the oil minister Ali al-Naimi is saying he is “optimistic” about crude oil (futures) being more “stabile.”

Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Massachusetts, stated today “Naimi’s comments should be very bearish for the market.  It suggests that the Saudi’s aren’t interested in seeing higher prices and may put a lid on them.”

Crude Oil futures are up 18% from this price last year.  With the sediment rolling over to bearish, I will be looking for low-risk entries in this market and for crude oil futures to target the $60 per barrel area.

Growth in US and European manufacturing helped prop optimism that fuel demand will grow as the economy strengthens.  New York Mercantile traders sent crude oil futures to nearly 2008 highs on this news.

Crude oil futures have advanced after a report affecting the US “factory index” climbed the fastest pace in the last seven months.  Even European manufacturing grew more in December than initially estimated.

Carl Larry, president of Oil Outlooks & Opinions LLC in Houston, stated today “Oil looks like one of the best investments of 2011.  Investors want to get in fast and get in early.  Any way you look at it, (crude oil futures) is going to be in demand this year.”

I am receiving conflicting reports on the intentions of OPEC, but will keep a close eye on the momentum of this market.  In my work, crude oil futures remains in an uptrend and we are looking for buy signals at this time.