Archive for the ‘Soymeal Futures Trading’ Category

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, I update my personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is my professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, I monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts that I have identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the markets which illustrate the bigger picture changing for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets: None

DOWN Trending Futures Markets: Soybeans, Wheat, Soy Oil, Corn, Kansas Wheat, Euro-currency, Soymeal, and Crude Oil (new this week).

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://SchadFutures.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

We’re just three weeks into January.  Let’s  highlight this week’s three BEST trades…and the worst three.

Here they are…The winners:

Sugar - $996.80 per contract score!

Live Cattle – $950 per contract score!

mini-Silver – ($75) per contract loss.

…and the losers:

Lean Hogs - ($280) per contract loss.

Soymeal- ($110) per contract loss.

mini-Silver- ($75) per contract loss (as above – only five ‘closed’ trades this week).

Follow my trades each and everyday at SchadFutures.com | Track Record – See you there…

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Informational purposes only…Not intended for solicitation of securities.

It’s mid-way through January.  Let’s  highlight these past two week’s three BEST trades…and the worst three.

Here they are…The winners:

Soybeans - $2,337.50 per contract score!

Corn – $1,825 per contract score!

Lean Hogs – $1,040 per contract score!

…and the losers:

Soymeal - ($610) per contract loss.

Cotton- ($590) per contract loss.

Gold- ($550) per contract loss.

Follow my trades each and everyday at SchadFutures.com | Track Record – See you there…

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Informational purposes only…Not intended for solicitation of securities.

Soybeans continued their spiral downward today to a five-week low as the stronger dollar further diminished any appeal of commodities as an alternative “hard-asset” investment.  The US Dollar Index rose today to its highest level since September and prospecting its first monthly price gain since early summer.

Investments in “buying long” commodities with cash borrowed in greenbacks at very low interest-rates have helped power a 19% gain this year in the Reuters/Jeffries CRB Index of 19 different commodity markets.  This 19-market basket of commodities includes US crops.

The vice-president of marketing at Allendale, Inc. in Illinois, Joe Victor says, “With the dollar rallying, the grain markets have turned lower as we head into the last two weeks of the year.  The dollar’s strength is encouraging some speculators to reduce long positions.”

This recent push lower in the soy complex has technically turned the trend DOWN for soybeans in my work.  Bean oil, and soymeal, are mixed.

Tighter world sugar supplies caused sugar futures to spike to their highest prices since 1981 today in New York on the outlook that demand will increase while output declines lower than what is forecasted for both Brazil and India – the world’s biggest sugar producers.  Sugar crops have been damaged by too much moisture in Brazil and drought conditions in India, making this the second straight year of a global sugar production deficit.

This revelation can send sugar futures even higher, according to Richard Ilczyszyn – a senior market strategist at Lind-Waldock in Chicago. He says, “Sugar is exploding…the chart looks very, very strong.” In my personal view, this is just the kind of “chatter” I heard of gold prices just before the $1,200 top…

Corn and soybean futures fell out of favor today, plunging the most since October as the US Dollar Index gained traction against rival foreign currencies. This is a complete reversal in recent bullish sentiment lately. CFTC committment-of-traders data shows hedge-fund managers and large traders unwound their net-long positions after a 16-month high in corn, and a five-month high in soybeans, just last week.

Bill Nelson, a senior economist for Doane Agriculture Advisory Services in St. Louis says, “The focus is on the dollar rally, and it’s been a big change in direction…the dollar has cut some some of the speculative interest in commodities, at least for the short-term.”

The trend for both corn and wheat is DOWN, but the soy complex is mixed in my work…

Increasing demand by Asian importers and US soybean processors have sent soybean prices to a two week high. US soybeans and livestock feed (soymeal) exports have increased significantly since drought negatively affected output from the two biggest growers and exporters of soybeans behind the US – Argentina and Brazil. Soymeal futures are already trading at a premium on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Senior market analyst at AgriVisor, Dale Durchholz, says “Demand is very strong, and exports to China are phenomenal…Processors are running near 100% capacity” for animal feed production and overseas buyers, he adds.

On to wheat…an unleased rising dollar is dimming prospects for US exports as wheat futures dropped after a three-day gain. The US Dollar Index gained as much 1% today eroding the purchasing power of US grain from foreign buyers. American wheat sales have slumped as foreign exporters have increased their grain sales while Southern Hemisphere harvest are becoming available.

Jim Hemminger, a risk-manager at Top Third Ag Marketing in Chicago states, “With the Australian crop being harvested and being moved into markets, that’s putting a damper on wheat prices…plus, Canada has additional wheat and France has wheat to sell.”

Corn is the biggest crop for US exports, followed by soybeans, hay, and wheat forth. That’s no typo, “hay” is the US’s third largest crop!

The sweet stuff may not be too appealing after all…March Sugar futures dropped the most in two weeks when the US Dollar Index rose 1/2% discouraging the appeal of other commodities as a hedge against inflation.

Sugar has surged over 90% this year alone as adverse weather hampered sugar cane harvests in the world’s biggest sugar producing countries – Brazil and India – prolonging a global-production deficit into its second year. Demand from Pakistan and India, the world’s biggest sugar consumer, may limit ideas of an extended decline. This market has been trending sideways for many months now, so we will see how this plays out with our own positions.

Here’s some more interesting news for you…A US exporter group reports soybean prices may rally another 20% by springtime as economic growth from China, the world’s largest soybean importer, increases demand for animal feed (soymeal) and cooking oil (soybean oil). Soymeal, the laggard of the soy complex, has just turned the corner to an uptrend just today. I’m going to keep my eye on this one and look for ways into the soybean market upon the very next downward correction.