The USDA reported recently just more than 50% of the Kansas wheat crops were in good or excellent condition which was downgraded from 60% a week prior.  This seems to now conflict with wheat (futures) dropping almost 7% this year as favorable weather assisted crop development.

“(Wheat futures gains…) due to the recent government report showing that only 52% of the Kansas wheat crop is now rated good-to-excellent, as opposed to 60% with that rating the previous week,”  said Barb Levy,chief account executive at Futures & Options Execution in Chicago, regarding the current wheat futures situation.

The trend for wheat futures remains down, and this is the time of year we should see an acceleration to the downside.  Wheat futures are pulling back for a lower-risk selling opportunity at this time…

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission revealed recently money-managers cut their bullish positions across the eighteen different futures markets by almost 20%.  Even the S&P’s Index of 24 raw materials managed to drop almost 7% over a week and a half time period – the biggest slide since the end of 2008.

Chris Hildebrand, vice-president of trading at HighGround Trading Group in Chicago, stated today regarding the current commodity futures situation, “The major consensus is that global growth is slowing down and you can see that in how the markets have reacted over the last couple of weeks.”  Hildebrand added, “Until there is something resolved with these countries and their rolls in the “Euro,” you will continue to see downside pressure on the contract and commodities overall for that matter.”

Most the commodity futures markets we trade had been in strong uptrends, but we’re seeing a possible trend change in the soy complex and in the livestock markets.  While these markets remain volatile, or in a sideways trading pattern, I feel most comfortable on the sidelines

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the bigger picture changing for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  (None this week.)

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Kansas Wheat, Sugar, Soymeal & Gold and Wheat (Both new this week.)

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the bigger picture changing for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Soybeans & Soymeal

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Kansas Wheat, Lean Hogs & Sugar (New this week.)

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

“CHICAGO, May 1, 2012 /PRNewswire/ — CME Group, the world’s leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, today announced it will expand electronic trading hours in its CBOT grain and oilseed futures and options beginning Monday, May 14, 2012. This will expand market access to CBOT Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Oats and Rough Rice futures and options on CME Globex to 22 hours per day.

‘As we’ve grown our customer base in agricultural commodities around the globe, we’ve received increased interest in expanding market access by providing longer trading hours,’ said Tim Andriesen, Managing Director, Agricultural Commodities and Alternative Investments, CME Group. ‘In particular, customers are looking to manage their price risk in our deep, liquid markets during market-moving events like USDA crop reports. In response to customer feedback, we’re expanding trading hours for our grain and oilseed products to ensure customers have even greater access to these effective price discovery tools.’

Beginning, May 13 for trade date May 14, customers will have expanded access to CBOT corn, soybeans, wheat, soybean meal and soybean oil futures and options on CME Globex as follows:

Sunday to Monday, 5:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. CT

Monday to Friday, 6:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. CT.

Open-outcry trading hours will continue to operate from 9:30 a.m. to 1:15 p.m. CT Monday to Friday.”

The fact that the two hour, fifteen minute, trading blackouts in the mornings are a thing of the past has me excited to be able to trade through the crop reports with confidence.  Over all, when we have traded through the reports we have generally had good luck.  It’s just when we get stung once will it have us thinking twice (“once bitten, twice smitten”).  Those day will be behind us in June.  I am excited for the future!

USDA estimates US farmers will produce almost 120M pigs this year (the most in about 50 years) while world hog production reaches an all-time high of almost 105M metric tons!  Analysts suggest another 10% lower in hog (futures) prices by the end of the year.

Chris Hildebrand, vice-president of trading at HighGround Trading Group in Chicago, stated today regarding the current hog futures situation, “There is a lot of pork in the system, no pun intended. After the last 2 year rise in (pork) prices, farmers have raised more and larger hogs leading to a surplus. Look for the trend to continue down for the near term.”

Hog futures have already seen record high prices, and the current trend is already down.  Before I can sell short hog futures once again, I need a pull-back higher in (pork) prices or a lower risk trade opportunity.  I am being as patient as I can possibly be

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission reported (week ending April 24th) the biggest decline of bullish corn futures positions since mid-2010 with 30% of bullish positions being offset.  The CFTC also clarified it was “money managers” reducing their positions.

“Any selloff in old crop corn (futures) should be well supported as ending stocks are quite low and prices will have to stay high in order to ration. Demand from Asia remains quite strong,” said Kevin Craney, Senior Commodities Broker for RJO Futures in Chicago, regarding the current corn futures situation.  Craney added, “China remains an opportunistic buyer of corn, and we should continue to see this kind of demand going forward.”

I don’t feel as if though I am “missing out” on this past corn futures move since the technical trend of corn futures is actually DOWN.  It is even more accurate to say corn futures has been trading “sideways” for the better part of this year.  I am awaiting a clear picture in corn futures before getting involved.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the bigger picture changing for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Soybeans, Soymeal, & Soy Oil

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Kansas Wheat & Lean Hogs (New this week.)

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

A spokesperson from the US Department of Agriculture stated yesterday that no beef from the affected animal entered the food chain.  That was enough explanation for Canada, Japan, Mexico, and South Korea to continue buying US beef supplies and, after all, the disease was confined to a “dairy” cow.

Barb Levy, Chief Director of the Futures Division at Futures & Options Xecution in Chicago, stated today regarding the current cattle futures situation, “Cattle futures rebounded today as yesterday’s decline off the idea that a case of mad cow disease found in California would halt meat purchases from Canada, Mexico, Japan and South Korea.  These reports appear to be unfounded…”

We took profit today on our feeder cattle futures position after this market failed with followthrough to the downside once being down LIMIT yesterday.  The trend is still very much down, but let’s await more of a bounce higher before resetting with another short position