Posts Tagged ‘pork futures’
Hog futures spiked to their highest price in over two weeks on the signs of a reduced amount of domestic hogs being brought to slaughter. Hog futures reversed their earlier gains, only closing 7.5 points higher for the day.
USDA data revealed the number of hogs being brought to slaughter, just yesterday, had declined 1.7% from a week earlier. Also realized yesterday, hog prices for immediate delivery increased 2.6% which is the biggest gain since mid-September.
“Hog (futures) are oversold and we might see a technical rally higher without any concrete fundamental news out there,” says Christian Moreno, a commodities broker for HighGround Trading Group in Chicago, regarding the current hog futures situation.
Hog futures trend is still technically down. I am inclined to see a little higher rally for hog futures, but view it as a selling opportunity.
I wish you a warm & wonderful Thanksgiving Day celebration tomorrow.
On signs that domestic pork demand is slowing, hog futures are down big for a second day. Hog futures (February) are currently trading at 9050 – a full $2.00 lower than yesterday’s high.
This past mid-June cash prices for hogs for immediate delivery were at a high, but since then cash hog prices have slid 20% (as of yesterday), USDA data reveals. Hog futures, however, have continued to exaggerate the June cash highs by reaching their $92.50 high just last month.
“Speculative traders bought CME December hogs with the view that the contract is undervalued based on the exchange’s soon-to-be-released hog index. The CME said it would on Tuesday issue its first lean hog index since the exchange suspended the data due to the partial US government shutdown,” said Mason Ching, Automated Trading Manager at Global Futures Exchange & Trading Company in Encino, CA, regarding the current hog futures situation. Ching added, “Hog futures also benefited from short-covering.”
The trend for hog futures is rolling over downward as of today – in my research. I will evaluate how & when to get short this market later today after the closing bell.
Hog futures are down for a third straight trading session on the outlook and concern increasing domestic pork output and supplies overshadowing pork demand here and overseas. Hog futures are down today $3.00 per CWT from their high only yesterday.
USDA data reveals meat-packers slaughtering nearly 1.3M hogs earlier this week, which is 1.5% more animals than this exact time last year. Government data also shows exporters shipping just over 3.25B pounds of pork this year (through August 31st), which is actually “down” a reported 8.6% from the same time last year – with carcass weights heavier for two months in a row.
Mason Ching, Automated Trading Manager at Global Futures Exchange & Trading Company in Encino, CA, had this to say regarding the current hog futures situation, “Weaker cash hog markets due to large hog runs have carried over to the futures, in my opinion this is due to the weather system moving across the Midwest which has allowed farmers to catch up on any delayed hog movement.”
The trend for hog futures remains up with no top yet in sight. I am still favoring the long-side of hog futures and see the market targeting the 94.50 to 94.75 area – in my work.
Hog futures spiked higher today on the outlook of improving demand for domestic pork. This speculation is said to be encouraging meat companies to purchase more hogs for slaughter.
Official data for supply, demand, and price reports from our USDA are still unavailable after two weeks because of the government shutdown, but according to an east-coast provider of agricultural news and data, it is speculated processors this week will probably handle 0.4% less hogs than last week with a foreseeable pick-up in demand.
“Hog prices should find some good support at current price levels for a little while,” said Kevin Riordan, director of research at Capital Trading Group in Chicago, regarding the current hog futures situation. Riordan added, “Demand has been on the increase and should be able to continue to absorb the recent increase in supplies.”
Hog futures trend is technically still “up,” albeit sideways for almost the last month and a half. We are long hog futures from early in today’s trading session, and came within 10 points (or “four ticks”) from realizing our initial target at 8850.
Hog futures were down big today on the outlook of both increasing domestic supplies and waning demand. Hogs were down as much as $1.50 and can’t seem to get out of congestion of the past week’s trading range.
The USDA is said to estimate meat-packers processing 428K hogs just yesterday, which is up more than 2.5% from a week earlier. Gov’t data also shows wholesale pork prices fell 1.5% yesterday – the biggest one-day drop since the end of last month.
“With a seasonal rise in supply ahead and speculative long liquidation selling picking up, in my opinion, I can see hog (futures) heading down. Also, with record open interest and overbought technical signals are seen as a bearish force,” said Christian Moreno, a commodities broker for HighGround Trading Group in Chicago, regarding the current hog futures situation. Moreno added, “The lean hog (futures) market looks vulnerable to a significant set-back.”
The trend for hog futures remains up, albeit sideways for the past week. I am looking for a way in to the long side of this market at this time.
Hog futures have climbed a wall since finding a low the last week of August. Pork prices pulled back today the most since then on the view of increased domestic pork supply.
Yesterday, spot hogs were set back almost one-half percent while wholesale pork prices have retreated 13% since the end of June – their biggest quarterly setback in a year (according to the USDA). What’s more is pork production is expected to increase 13% (from the previous quarter) by the end of the year.
Barb Levy, chief director for The Fox Group’s futures division in Chicago, had this to say regarding the current hog futures situation, “Hogs futures rose late last week over concern for lower hog weights in the face of the heat wave.” Levy added, “However, the corn supply for feed appears to be very large, eliminating any concerns over weights, and resulting in today’s decline in the hog futures market.”
Hog futures have managed to break out of their consolidation to the upside. Let’s let hog futures provide some type of pull-back before initiating any long position.
Well it was a good long hog futures ride while it lasted. Pork prices abruptly retreated south on the outlook of increased supply with not matching demand.
The USDA shows meatpacking plants processing 5.2% more hogs earlier this week than last – only a 0.7% increase from this time last year. They also reported wholesale pork prices dropping 1.1% which is the lowest since the very beginning of the month.
“Expectations for pork production in the fourth quarter of this year are higher than they were for the third quarter, and this rising supply is concerning the market. Seasonal demand tends to taper off after Labor Day, so there are demand fears in the market,” said Kevin Craney, Director of Managed Futures at RJO Futures in Chicago, regarding the current hog futures situation. Craney added, “These fears will keep the hog market trading in a range.”
Hog futures trend is still up as current pork futures prices have recently broke out above the 2012 highs. All time hog futures prices are now being tested but I will require either a low-risk way back in this market, while anticipating a significant pull-back or sideways action in the near future.
Hog futures continue to rally with pork prices just two cents below the late May highs. This is reportedly the “longest rally” since March on the view of increasing demand for “the other white meat.”
The USDA is reporting domestic meat-packing plants processing approximately 365,000 hogs yesterday – almost 3% more from last week. Also reported is a 38% increase in pork meat exports from the prior week before, and if that isn’t enough wholesale pork prices have said to have climbed almost 3.5% this month already.
Kevin Craney, Director of Managed Futures at RJO Futures in Chicago, had this to say regarding the current hog futures situation, “Strength in wholesale pork prices have lent support to (hog) futures. Strong demand from consumers have also helped.” Craney added, “Look for momentum to continue in hog prices with the strong demand expectations.”
I screwed up with hog futures yesterday! The trend was still technically “up” but with the market making lower lows from the May high I decided to bail on the position a little early. Now, I will need for hog futures to pull-back to get back onboard this market in a lower-risk scenario.
Hog futures pulled back for the third time in a week and a half on the outlook of cooler weather allowing hogs to gain weight before taken to slaughter, ultimately adding to pork supplies. Hog futures are currently higher for the day and testing last month’s high.
In the next week to a week-and-a-half, it is forecasted to be cooler than normal from the Northern Great Plains, Midwest, and Southeast. Cooler temperatures translate into hogs “eating more” which will reverse the USDA finding of last week of hogs weights dropping a full percent when temperatures and humidity were high.
“Demand may also be shifting from higher cattle prices to pork as well as favorable weather helping to put weight back on the hogs,” said Kevin Craney, Director of Managed Futures at RJO Futures in Chicago, regarding the current hog futures situation.
The overall trend for hog futures has been up, but in the last few weeks it appeared hogs might have been at a crossroads. I have been light on my feet with hog futures lately, but am seeing the the overall uptrend as the direction to trade.
The combination of high wholesale pork prices and a rising dollar putting the kibosh on US exports are said to be the culprits for the plummeting hog futures. The outlook is for domestic pork products to continue to wane and this view has been reflective of the hog futures chart since the end of June.
The USDA has reported wholesale pork prices up 29% this year after reaching $111.33CWT in late June – the highest price since the 4th Qtr 1997. As the US Dollar has climbed to a three-year high against other major currencies, US exports have reportedly dropped 13% the first five months of this year compared to the same time in 2012.
Kevin Riordan, director of research at Capital Trading Group in Chicago, had this to say regarding the current hog futures situation, “We expect export demand to slow for while as the market digests the duel effects of a rising US dollar and new record highs for wholesale pork (prices).”
Although the sell-off since late June, hog futures trend is still technically up. As the dust settles with this market, I still will continue to look for low-risk buying opportunities until the picture changes.