Brazil’s Potential Export Delays May Boost Soybean Futures

A soybean and corn crop analyst from the Midwest predicts Brazil to have delays exporting soybeans next year due to two reasons: a bigger supplies next year, and grain facilities being used for sugar exports.  Because of these potential setbacks, our domestic soybean exports could have heavy volume next year.

The USDA predicts Brazil to realize a record harvest of 88M metric tons of soybeans for the 2013-14 season.  In a demonstration of wrong timing, earlier this month there was a major fire in one of Brazil’s sugar warehouses which may translate to some grain facilities being used to accommodate sugar exports.
Kevin Craney, Director of Managed Futures at RJO Futures in Chicago, had this to say regarding the current soybean futures situation,Although the demand for soybeans is strong this hasn’t been enough to support prices. Soybean yields are better than expected and many farmers are bringing grain to elevators now due to storage constraints and corn harvest.”  Craney added,These supply issues will continue to pressure soybean prices.”

Soybean futures has emerged with a a technical uptrend (in my work) just last week, and currently long this market from Tuesday.  Although there has been little follow-through for soybean futures, it is at a crossroads.


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