Archive for the ‘Crude Oil Futures’ Category

Crude Oil Futures Back Below $50 on Supply

Crude oil futures traded below $50 per barrel today for the first time since the initial down-move In March took oil prices to the $44 dollar area. Crude oil futures are trading down $1.69 as of this writing currently at $49.14 per barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The analysts reportedly were expecting a drop in supply of nearly TWO MILLION barrels, but the API reported a rise of 2.3M barrels here in the US as of last week – a significant spread. Another report from the Energy Information Administration may show a slightly less amount of crude oil stockpiles as of July 17th.

The technical trend for crude oil is down with no bottom yet in sight. With crude oil below $50 per barrel, maybe us consumers can see gasoline prices reflected lower as well…

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Supply Outlook Halts Rise in Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures seem to be at a stand-still as concerns over US shale production being revived are contemplated. Crude oil futures are up a nominal .40 cents today currently trading at $60.73 per barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Yesterday, government data showed domestic gasoline inventories rose by a half-million barrels last week – distillate stockpiles increasing by 100K barrels – at a time when the US “driving season” has entered its peak gasoline demand period. Crude oil inventories, on the other hand, fell a little less than expected during this same time period.

Crude oil futures entered into a down-trend at the end of last month according to my study. Follow through to the crude oil futures downside can have a positive effect for the consumer, and we may see this in the second-half of the year.

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New Low for May as Stronger Dollar Weighs on Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures have found new lows for this month with the backdrop of a stronger dollar and geopolitical concerns in oil-rich Middle East hotspots. Crude oil futures are down over $1.50 per barrel at New York’s Mercantile Exchange (as of this writing).

The US dollar is reported to have helped this crude oil move lower when it accelerated to the upside and reinforcing a new uptrend. Elsewhere, traders may be factoring-in the possibility of sanctions being lifted from Iran because if this should happen this summer (as discussed), then more oil will be added to the world glut of supply.

Crude oil futures are at a cross-road in its current uptrend. If tomorrow can manage to break today’s low, this can possibly change the technical trend to “down” in my work.

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New Highs For Crude Oil After Weekly US Supply Data

Crude Oil futures are up $2.12 per barrel today to highs not seen since December after inventory data revealed domestic oil supplies rose to levels less than expected last week. Crude oil futures are currently trading just above $59 a barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange.

According to the US Energy Information Administration, crude oil inventories increased by 1.9M barrels in the week ending April 24th, falling short of the expectations for an increase of 2.3M barrels. As it stands now, domestic oil inventories total nearly 491M barrels which is the most in 80 years – even drilling activity waning!

The trend for crude oil is up and with new highs breaking out today there is no top yet in sight. We’re seeing the repercussions of higher oil prices at the pump – already a dollar higher per gallon from the lows.

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Record Domestic Inventories Send Crude Oil Futures to $44 Per Barrel

Crude oil futures briefly reached the $44 per barrel benchmark in very early trading based on the outlook of oversupply concerns as energy industry data revealed crude oil inventories had reached a new record high. Crude oil futures finished the day $2.43 per barrel higher at the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The American Petroleum Institute (“API”) reported US crude oil inventories rising by 10.5M barrels to 450M barrels in the week ending March 13th. A high-profile media poll had initially indicated analysts expecting only a 3.8M build-up of inventory, so you can realize the significant difference.

Crude oil’s trend is clearly down with no bottom yet in sight – especially hitting new contract lows just today. Crude oil futures is not a market I trade, but I report about it because it correlates with the price of gasoline – a product we are so dependent upon.

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Crude Oil Futures Remove All February Gains

Crude Oil futures erased all gains made this past month earlier today and was within $4 of last month’s multi-year low. April delivery crude oil futures settled today at $48.92 per barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange from their lows of $47.80 earlier in Thursday’s trading session.

We were cautioned by analysts to brace ourselves for a bounce back up to the $70 per barrel range, but all three attempts to follow-through above $55 fell short. It is probably because all eyes might have been on yesterday’s “Energy Information Administration’s” weekly report stating US crude oil inventories increased by 8.4 million barrels last week – when only a 4M increase was expected.

The trend for crude oil futures is technically “down,” but at a crossroads. If crude oil futures were to break out above the $55 highs of this month, it’s first target should be $59, then $65 per barrel. However, a break below last month’s low could send crude oil futures to the low $30’s – if not lower.

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Crude Oil Futures Poised for Further Drop on Iraqi Oil Surge

Crude oil futures are hovering just below $45 per barrel and appear for a breakout lower with the forthcoming revelation. The whole breakdown of crude oil prices from OPEC members competing for global customers is about to accelerate with Iraqi oil production.

Oil production from Iraq is actually said to be climbing from a 35-year high as the southern oil fields remain untouched by ISIS militants, and adds a growing supply of oil from the Kurdish region (up north) to its exports. To match buyers with the added production will mean only one thing – offering more attractive incentives to buy than competing rivals of the OPEC nations.

Crude oil futures trend is down with no clear bottom in sight. A decisive move below $45 per barrel can send crude oil futures to its next support level of $40.

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Speculators Now Coming Forward with Price Floor Predictions for Crude Oil Futures

Stories are emerging regarding crude oil futures bottom-line price floor in this incredible decent from over $100 per barrel. One hedge-fund manager’s view is that crude oil prices have already “almost” bottomed out and that “some recovery” is likely in the second-half of this year when demand picks up.

Just this past summer, crude oil futures were trading over $100 per barrel – a price well above “break-even” operational costs for energy producers. If $40 (or less) a barrel were to be the renewed “normal” as it was pre-Persian Gulf War in 1991, there is concern US and Canadian oil production cannot be sustained due to the overall cost of production.

The trend for crude oil futures is down with no bottom yet in sight. We could very well see continued crude oil future prices pressured into the seasonal low time period this time next month.

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Crude Oil Futures Rise on Retail Sales & Equities

With retail sales falling only slightly than expected, and stock indices back on the march, crude oil futures took the opportunity to rally and close more than $2.60 per barrel.  This is amongst the biggest gain of the past four weeks.

NYMEX Crude Oil futures are still at a significant discount to Brent crude oil, but when the US Commerce Department announced retail purchases dropping only .2% in May, the lower than expected figure helped crude oil futures gain over 2% today – closing near it’s highs of the day.

Fears that China’s economy may experience a hard landing are beginning to abate due to better than expected economic data,” said Jordan Luckey, a commodity broker with RJO Futures of Chicago.  “The charts on WTI crude (oil futures) also show great support between $95 and $96 dollars a barrel,” added Luckey.

Although front-month crude oil futures have climbed over 30% in the past year, the market has been at a crossroads the past month-and-a-half – after the early May sell-off.  I am sidelined in this market for now.

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Crude Oil Futures Dampen on US Hiring

With the near-term outlook that fuel demand growth will weaken, crude oil futures plummeted the most in three weeks after recent data showed the US has added less jobs than anticipated and manufacturing has cooled.  Crude oil futures have been range-bound lately trying to breakout above it’s recent lows.

An Arizona-based study group reported for the month of May only 38,000 jobs added to the economy – the smallest in almost a year.  To make matters worst, they also reported factory output decreased to levels not seen in two years.  Crude Oil futures responded negatively to the news.

Weaker then expected manufacturing and employment data propelled the equity markets downward pulling crude along side them,” said James Lombardo today – a senior trading advisor with RJ O’Brien Futures in Chicago.  “Manufacturing has slowed according to the ISM Manufacturing Index, adding additional stress on concerns for crude (oil) demand,” he added.

The trend for crude oil futures is still up, as long as the market can continue to trade above it’s recent lows.  I am receiving mixed signals from this market and will continue to look for lower-risk opportunities.

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