Archive for the ‘Hog Futures’ Category

China’s Culling a Boon to the Pork Industry: Hog Futures

Hog futures should be finding solid support as news of China’s culling of their sow hog-herd by 19% is predicted to provide support to the global pork industry for some time to come. Hog futures are actually down .20 cents per pound today currently trading at $68.95 (CWT) at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

The culling of the Chinese herd over the past year and a half has been recognized as one of the biggest in history and, get this, said to be equivalent to the loss of the more recent Canadian, Mexican, and US herd culling – combined! The effect of this action in China is now apparent in the global pork industry with tightened pork supplies and higher prices.

Hog futures trend is technically up at this time, but looking at a bigger picture this market has actually been trading sideways since February. Hog futures could breakout to the upside with a sustained price move above $72, however, and if it happens it could be soon.


Hog Futures: Bacon Demand Making Pork Belly Prices Soar

Hog futures may not reflect it now, but spot pork belly prices have been on a tear since May due to the many creative uses of bacon in restaurants which is helping demand, but also depleting supplies. Hog futures are down .65 cents (CWT) today currently trading at $62.32 per pound at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Late last week, the USDA reported a one-year wholesale price high for pork bellies – nearly $1.70 per pound – with much of this price surge due to a 174% spike since making a five-year low just this past April. Pork belly prices continued to make new lows despite the overall hog surge last year after a brutal virus required producers to cull a reported eight million (plus) piglets.

The technical trend for hog futures is at a crossroads – the trend is technically “up,” however lower-low prices tomorrow could turn the trend down. In the meantime, many of us can enjoy the benefits of relatively low pork prices while it lasts.


Hog Futures Making Slow Comeback as Record Production Maybe Spurring Demand

Hog futures have halted their first-quarter slide and appear to be making their way higher as record production of hogs is reportedly putting more pork on the menu. Hog futures are up over $1.52 per CWT and are currently trading at $65.07 (CWT) at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Wholesale prices of pork are down 40% since last summer and more restaurants are reportedly buying more of the product to serve and apparently this is creating demand. With prices so low compared to beef, domestic pork production is heading for an all-time high this year.

The trend for hog futures appears to be in a very early stage of an up-trend. Prices are still low enough for pork lovers to enjoy their favorite sandwiches or dishes, but a breakout above $72.00 (CWT) could mean steadily higher prices down the road.


Hog Futures: The Only Commodity to Fall More Than Oil

Despite energy and gold dominating the news wires recently, lean hog futures are the one commodity that has actually fallen MORE than crude oil. Lean hog futures are actually up 40 points at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (as of this writing), but in the overall scheme of things the hog market has actually plummeted over 51% since the end of last June.

“Lean hog” (futures) – the market-term designating butchered pigs regardless of size – have only sunk in price after reaching record highs last summer after a terrible disease decimated supplies. Thankfully to the credit of resourceful pig farmers, once the virus ran its course more hogs made it to the market and the USDA projects a 5.5% rise in pork production this year at a time of slowing int’l demand.

The trend for hog futures is down with no clear bottom yet in sight. All lean hog rallies should be viewed as opportunities to get in on the short side – which is where I’m at.


Hog Futures Rallying on Slower Slaughter Rate

Hog futures spiked to their highest price in over two weeks on the signs of a reduced amount of domestic hogs being brought to slaughter.  Hog futures reversed their earlier gains, only closing 7.5 points higher for the day.

USDA data revealed the number of hogs being brought to slaughter, just yesterday, had declined 1.7% from a week earlier.  Also realized yesterday, hog prices for immediate delivery increased 2.6% which is the biggest gain since mid-September.

Hog (futures) are oversold and we might see a technical rally higher without any concrete fundamental news out there,” says Christian Moreno, a commodities broker for HighGround Trading Group in Chicago, regarding the current hog futures situation

Hog futures trend is still technically down.  I am inclined to see a little higher rally for hog futures, but view it as a selling opportunity.

I wish you a warm & wonderful Thanksgiving Day celebration tomorrow.


Hog Futures Slump On Waning Demand

On signs that domestic pork demand is slowing, hog futures are down big for a second day.  Hog futures (February) are currently trading at 9050 – a full $2.00 lower than yesterday’s high.

This past mid-June cash prices for hogs for immediate delivery were at a high, but since then cash hog prices have slid 20% (as of yesterday), USDA data reveals.  Hog futures, however, have continued to exaggerate the June cash highs by reaching their $92.50 high just last month.
Speculative traders bought CME December hogs with the view that the contract is undervalued based on the exchange’s soon-to-be-released hog index. The CME said it would on Tuesday issue its first lean hog index since the exchange suspended the data due to the partial US government shutdown,” said Mason Ching, Automated Trading Manager at Global Futures Exchange & Trading Company in Encino, CA, regarding the current hog futures situation.  Ching added,Hog futures also benefited from short-covering.”

The trend for hog futures is rolling over downward as of today – in my research.  I will evaluate how & when to get short this market later today after the closing bell. 


Hog Futures Lower on Increasing Domestic Pork Output

Hog futures are down for a third straight trading session on the outlook and concern increasing domestic pork output and supplies overshadowing pork demand here and overseas.  Hog futures are down today $3.00 per CWT from their high only yesterday.

USDA data reveals meat-packers slaughtering nearly 1.3M hogs earlier this week, which is 1.5% more animals than this exact time last year.  Government data also shows exporters shipping just over 3.25B pounds of pork this year (through August 31st), which is actually “down” a reported 8.6% from the same time last year – with carcass weights heavier for two months in a row.
Mason Ching, Automated Trading Manager at Global Futures Exchange & Trading Company in Encino, CA, had this to say regarding the current hog futures situation,Weaker cash hog markets due to large hog runs have carried over to the futures, in my opinion this is due to the weather system moving across the Midwest which has allowed farmers to catch up on any delayed hog movement.”

The trend for hog futures remains up with no top yet in sight.  I am still favoring the long-side of hog futures and see the market targeting the 94.50 to 94.75 area – in my work.


Hog Futures Buoyed by Fresh Demand

Hog futures spiked higher today on the outlook of improving demand for domestic pork.  This speculation is said to be encouraging meat companies to purchase more hogs for slaughter.

Official data for supply, demand, and price reports from our USDA are still unavailable after two weeks because of the government shutdown, but according to an east-coast provider of agricultural news and data, it is speculated processors this week will probably handle 0.4% less hogs than last week with a foreseeable pick-up in demand.

Hog prices should find some good support at current price  levels for a little while,” said Kevin Riordan, director of research at Capital Trading Group in Chicago, regarding the current hog futures situation.  Riordan added,Demand has been on the increase and should be able to continue to absorb the recent  increase in supplies.”

Hog futures trend is technically still “up,” albeit sideways for almost the last month and a half.  We are long hog futures from early in today’s trading session, and came within 10 points (or “four ticks”) from realizing our initial target at 8850.


Slaughter & Demand a Downer for Hog Futures

Hog futures were down big today on the outlook of both increasing domestic supplies and waning demand.  Hogs were down as much as $1.50 and can’t seem to get out of congestion of the past week’s trading range.

The USDA is said to estimate meat-packers processing 428K hogs just yesterday, which is up more than 2.5% from a week earlier.  Gov’t data also shows wholesale pork prices fell 1.5% yesterday – the biggest one-day drop since the end of last month.

With a seasonal rise in supply ahead and speculative long liquidation selling picking up, in my opinion, I can see hog (futures) heading down.  Also, with record open interest and overbought technical signals are seen as a bearish force,”  said Christian Moreno, a commodities broker for HighGround Trading Group in Chicago, regarding the current hog futures situation.  Moreno added,The lean hog (futures) market looks vulnerable to a significant set-back.”

The trend for hog futures remains up, albeit sideways for the past week.  I am looking for a way in to the long side of this market at this time.


Hog Futures Pause on Supply Outlook

Hog futures have climbed a wall since finding a low the last week of August.  Pork prices pulled back today the most since then on the view of increased domestic pork supply.

Yesterday, spot hogs were set back almost one-half percent while wholesale pork prices have retreated 13% since the end of June – their biggest quarterly setback in a year (according to the USDA).  What’s more is pork production is expected to increase 13% (from the previous quarter) by the end of the year.
Barb Levy, chief director for The Fox Group’s futures division in Chicago, had this to say regarding the current hog futures situation,Hogs futures rose late last week over concern for lower hog weights in the face of the heat wave.”  Levy added,However, the corn supply for feed appears to be very large, eliminating any concerns over weights, and resulting in today’s decline in the hog futures market.”

Hog futures have managed to break out of their consolidation to the upside.  Let’s let hog futures provide some type of pull-back before initiating any long position.

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