Gains Seen Overdone Stalls Soybean Futures

Soybean futures have much information to digest, one day after the USDA report confirmed smaller domestic stockpiles than previously expected.  As soybean farmers now prepare to boost plantings, the outlook now is that the recent price gains may have been overdone.

Before the next harvest, US soybean inventories are expected to total 135M bushels – which is almost 7% less than forecasted just last month and within estimate forecasts.  The outlook of lesser supplies have helped soybean futures soar 15% so far this year.

With confirmation of Chinese canceling at least 500,000 metric tons (10 to 12 cargoes) we might see a significant move lower in (soybean futures).  If we hear of more cancellations of US and Brazilian beans into China, and massive overbought technical levels, a correction could be looming,” stated Christian Moreno, a commodities broker for HighGround Trading Group in Chicago, regarding the current soybean futures situation.

Soybean futures trend is up with no top yet in sight.  I am looking for a further pull-back in soybean futures prices before reinitiating long positions with the trend.

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