Posts Tagged ‘agricultural futures’

Soybean Futures at Risk with the Drop of Brazilian Real

Soybean futures have been put on notice coming into the northern hemisphere harvest, but in the southern, the currency crisis in Brazil has been a boon to soybean farmers there looking to unload their crop. Soybean futures, down four out of the last five trading sessions, is holding steady (up just over a penny) currently near $8.62 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

The Brazilian Real has fallen to a record low compared to the US Dollar, but the fall of the currency is setting-up favorable conditions for farmer’s there to see record high soybean sowings, despite early dry weather conditions. This Brazilian currency crisis, which provides great support for those farmers, may be an Achilles heel to farmers elsewhere with soybeans plentiful in supplies and stocks.

Soybean futures’ trend is down with no bottom yet in sight, however, the market is approaching long-term support that goes back to late 2012/early 2013. With harvest period in sight, I expect soybean futures to remain choppy to down at best until clearer fundamental conditions are learned after harvest.

Share

Feedlot Data Halts Cattle Futures Decline

Cattle futures have put on the brakes on a market near its 15-month lows as data is emerging showing the number of animals going to feedlots has spiraled to an all-time low. Cattle futures traded down $1.50 per CWT to settle near $138.25 at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Cattle used for meat raising usually get placed at feedlots to fatten-up before going to market, but the number of animals scheduled for feedlot placement fell almost 5.5% from the same time last year – the fewest since the USDA started record keeping in 1996. The feedlot population is reportedly just shy of 10M-head of cattle, which is actually more than 90K-head short of analysts expectations but still considered rather bullish for this market.

The trend for cattle futures is down with no bottom yet in sight. Cattle futures will have to demonstrate a halt of lower prices before a change in trend occurs, but let’s enjoy the low prices while we can.

Share

AgFutures Trading Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Sugar and Lean Hogs (New this week.)

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Soy Oil, S&P 500 Index, Crude Oil, Coffee and Cotton & Feeder Cattle (Both new this week.)

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

Share

Milk Futures May See Another Wave Higher Thanks to El Nino

Milk futures, although $2.50 lower from its August highs and $2.00 less than its June highs, may be setting up for another run to those higher prices if El Nino threats to disrupt weather patterns for New Zealand dairy farmers come true. Class III milk futures are trading up .04 cents (per CWT) currently at $15.79 (CWT) today at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

The Australian official news bureau reportedly rated this forthcoming storm to be the strongest since 1997-98 and stated its not going to go away any time soon, but will be felt into the new year. This comes at a time when New Zealand has reportedly reduced the numbers of their dairy cows, culling “poor performing” cows and heifers.

Milk futures trend is currently down with no bottom yet in sight. It will take time and certain price action to change milk futures trend so let’s all enjoy the lower prices at the store while we can.

Share

AgFutures Trading Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Sugar (New this week.)

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Soy Oil, Russell 2000 Index, S&P 500 Index, Crude Oil and Coffee

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

Share

Brazilian Rains Help to Boost Sugar Futures

Sugar futures eased back a bit today following yesterday’s 3% rally on news of rains in South America helping to extend the current rally. Sugar futures closed down 13 points to settle trading today at .1130 cents per pound at the Intercontinental Exchange .

Despite the sentiment of sugar being more abundant than sand on the beach, bullish factors are emerging such as the Brazilian rains seen stalling the sugar-cane harvest in South America’s center-south growing region, and sugar output behind analysts expectations last month. Brazil is one of the world’s top producers of the sweet stuff and mills in that region are responsible for reportedly 90% of the country’s sugar output.

The technical trend for sugar is down, however sugar futures are at a crossroads at this time. A trade above .1165 in the near-term could push sugar futures to an uptrend while a trade down to .1084 could keep the lower prices intact – a plus for the consumer.

Share

Coffee Futures Slightly Higher as Colombia’s Harvest Extends Recovery

Coffee futures may be pricing in Colombia’s resurgence of coffee production regardless of dry weather these past few months due to replanted trees maturing. Coffee futures are up a nominal 10 points currently trading just over $1.21 per pound at the Intercontinental Exchange.

The Colombia Coffee Growers Association is watching the developments closely as the government there anticipates 2015 production to be 13M tons on the high end. The country is the world’s second largest producer of the “arabica” coffee variety.

Coffee futures remain down with contract lows made just this past week. Coffee futures are still pricing in future supply with current demand so this is a plus for the coffee drinking public.

Share

China’s Culling a Boon to the Pork Industry: Hog Futures

Hog futures should be finding solid support as news of China’s culling of their sow hog-herd by 19% is predicted to provide support to the global pork industry for some time to come. Hog futures are actually down .20 cents per pound today currently trading at $68.95 (CWT) at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

The culling of the Chinese herd over the past year and a half has been recognized as one of the biggest in history and, get this, said to be equivalent to the loss of the more recent Canadian, Mexican, and US herd culling – combined! The effect of this action in China is now apparent in the global pork industry with tightened pork supplies and higher prices.

Hog futures trend is technically up at this time, but looking at a bigger picture this market has actually been trading sideways since February. Hog futures could breakout to the upside with a sustained price move above $72, however, and if it happens it could be soon.

Share

AgFutures Trading Weekend Report: An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move

Once each week, usually on Friday evenings, we update our personal weekly commodity trading charts and review them for changes in “net long” or, “net short” holdings between the big commercial commodity traders, large speculators, and the usually uninformed public. This is our professional analysis of “the bigger picture” and current dynamics for each market which provide a spyglass view of the BIG commercial traders and what they are currently doing to influence the futures markets.

As you may already know, insider trading with stocks on Wall Street is very illegal. However, in the commodity trading industry, large/commercial traders MUST report their positions EACH WEEK to the CFTC regulatory body, hence, we monitor them on a weekly basis. Although the futures markets themselves will ultimately provide the most accurate illustration of trend, these (weekly) charts we’ve identified, serve to forewarn us of the next possible bigger move.

Here are the commodity markets which illustrate the changing bigger picture for them:

UP Trending Futures Markets:  Japanese Yen

DOWN Trending Futures Markets:  Soy Oil, Russell 2000 Index, Silver, S&P 500 Index, Feeder Cattle and Crude Oil & Coffee (Both new this week.)

To see “An Insider’s View of the Next Big Market Move,” find your way to http://AGFuturesTrading.com | Contact Us and fill in the form on the right-hand side. What are you waiting for…? It’s FREE!

Share

Cotton Futures Find Support Amid Chinese Net Exporter News

Cotton futures is pricing in news of China reportedly becoming a net exporter of cotton (and wheat) by the end of this decade due to the slump in their cotton industry. Cotton futures settled up 27 points today to close at .6276 cents per pound at the Intercontinental Exchange.

Of all China’s commodities produced, cotton is said to be the only market that has suffered negative demand growth since 2008, and is expected to continue through 2020. China is reported to have lost international competitiveness in the textile industry which is the reason they will no longer need to import cotton after 2018.

The trend for cotton futures is down (once again) as of this week with no bottom in sight. Cotton futures have been trading in a .07 cent range for the better part of this year and is still finding its direction.

Share
Free Report
Receive Actual Trading Statements, & a Special Insider Report: 5 Key Trading Foundation Points

Futures Trading Report
 

Please note that it
takes a minimum
of $10,000 to effectively
trade these portfolios!
 
*First Name:
*Last Name:
*E-mail:
*Day Phone with
Area Code:

Categories

Follow Us on Twitter