Posts Tagged ‘federal reserve’

US Data & Need for Fed Clarification Send Gold Futures Soaring

Gold futures have blasted-off today reportedly once mixed domestic data highlighted uncertainty with the Federal Reserves timing of their next rate hike. Gold futures are up $22.40 per ounce currently trading at $1,153.90 at the New York Commodity Exchange.

The US Commerce and Labor Departments both released information such as initial jobless claims, durable goods orders (and “core” durable goods orders), orders & shipments for core capital goods, which came in outside analysts projections, but also revisions from previous reports were eye-openers for the gold trade. Later today, the Federal Reserves Chairwoman will be delivering a speech that investors will be listening to that may provide clarity on last week’s decision to keep interest-rates steady.

The trend for gold has been back and forth with big swings in the past month, and is now at a crossroad to switch back up. Gold futures will require a little more action to the upside to change the direction to up in my work, however.


Gold Futures Lagging on Greek Restructuring & US Data

Gold futures are down for the fourth straight trading session after mixed-signals with the US economy and the unfolding of the Greek debt crisis. Gold futures are down $2.70 per ounce currently at $1,144.70 at the Commodity Exchange in New York.

Gold – usually viewed as a “safe-haven” for investors amid inflation and world instability – has been lagging despite the sluggish economy in China, the Greek debt crisis becoming larger, and the recent deal on Iran’s nuclear ambition. Here in the US the Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen, is said to be sending indications that current domestic conditions may likely justify hiking-up interest-rates, however the stronger dollar, recent initial jobless claims, and even manufacturing data are all unclear.

The trend for gold futures is down with no bottom yet in sight. A bounce higher in gold futures is becoming overdue in my opinion.


Upbeat Employment & Trade Data Not Enough for Gold Futures

Gold futures fell today to lows not seen since early last month on the outlook of positive data making the case for an interest-rate hike this year. Gold futures are down $8.60 currently at $1,185.80 per ounce (but traded to $1,180 earlier in the trading session) at the New York Commodity Exchange.

The US Commerce Department reported the trade deficit narrowed close to 20% in April exceeding analysts expectations, while in the same month US exports ticked up a full 1% and imports declined 3.3%. This information came before the payroll processing firm “ADP” stated May non-farm payrolls rose a hair above expectations to 201,000 with the economy creating 165,000 jobs.

The trend for gold futures has been absolutely sideways for 2.5 months while technically “up” in my work. A couple more down days from here could change the trend from up to down, however – today’s/tomorrow’s lows must hold.


Gold Futures Rally on US Data & Greek Concerns

Gold futures broke out above $1,200 late this week on the outlook of official US data indicating a possible interest-rate hike based on the strength of the economy. Then gold futures turned around for the day about $4 per ounce just under $1,198 per ounce at New York’s Commodity Exchange.

With the US dollar under pressure Wednesday after domestic industrial production showed to fall six-tenths of one percent (the largest drop since the summer of 2012, and twice as weak as economists had expected), the disappointing report rekindled speculation for the Federal Reserve Board to hold off hiking interest-rates anytime soon.

Gold futures trend is technically up, however the market has been trading sideways for almost a month. Gold futures appear to be building a base for another breakout to the upside.


Gold Futures Lower After Housing Starts, Ahead of FOMC Meeting

Gold futures have retreated back to lows not seen since November reportedly on mixed housing data and ahead of the Federal Reserve’s two-day monetary policy meeting. Gold futures are currently trading at $1,148 per ounce at the COMEX division of New York’s Mercantile Exchange.

The US Department of Commerce reported the number of housing starts issued throughout the country fell dramatically last month, while at the same time housing permits exceeded expectations (thus, the mixed picture). The other side of the bearish gold coin is that traders are looking ahead to tomorrow’s official statement by the Federal Reserve to see if there is any indication by them to begin raising interest-rates as early as June.

The trend for gold futures is down with no bottom yet in sight. This has been a difficult market for me these last two weeks when gold futures accelerated with the trend and through what would have been my sell stops – and never looked back.


New York’s Feds Send Gold Futures Plummeting

Gold futures are sharply lower today reportedly after the New York Federal Reserve’s index of manufacturing conditions showed improvement for prospects in February – but just not at the pace for economic growth expected. The index dipped to a level of “7.8” for this month when in fact analysts were4 expecting 8.5.

Gold futures may be at a vulnerable crossroads amid ongoing expectations for the Federal Reserve private bank to begin a campaign to raise interest-rates possibly in June. Higher interest-rates are considered bearish for gold & precious metals as an investment because it competes with yield-bearing assets when rates are rising.

The trend for gold futures is down once again after a brief rise last month. There is no bottom yet in sight for gold futures, however, a base of support comes in at the $1,170.00 level in my study.


Commodity Futures Markets at Lowest Level Since January

With the US Dollar advancing on the outlook for the Federal Reserve to increase interest-rates next year, the commodity futures markets have plummeted to their lowest levels since the very beginning of the year. Markets that have sent the commodity index lower include nickel, Brent crude oil, and corn (of all markets).

In the meantime, the US Dollar has climbed to a 14-month against 10 other high-profile currencies it is compared against, as reports later this week are expected to show retail sales improving and jobless claims dropping. Later next week Federal Reserve policy makers meet to discuss the dollar’s gain and its effect on domestic commodity prices rising compared to other currencies.

Most of our commodity futures markets we trade are in choppy to down-trending trends. However, choppy commodity futures markets lead to breakouts in one direction, or another, and that is what I am concentrating on catching at this slow time.


Equities, Portugal’s Debt Seen Boosting Gold Futures

Gold futures climbed to prices not seen since March as concerns over debt in Portugal and the current slump in equities possibly boosting demand for the precious metal as a safe haven. Gold futures are up over $14.00 per ounce from yesterday as of this writing.

There are major concerns that Europe’s most indebted nations remain financially vulnerable to shocks after Euro-bonds declined when Portugal’s largest bank missed a debt payment recently. Equity-markets have been in the tank since last week at this time and this is also contributing to flight-to-safety in gold futures.

Laura Taylor, a senior commodities broker at RJO Futures in Chicago, had this to say regarding the current gold futures situation,The flight to quality today in the gold (futures) and bonds stems from the concerns in Europe over the Portugal’s possible financial collapse.” Taylor adds,But what is adding fuel to the fire is the world’s concerns that the Federal Reserve’s intention to stop pumping money into the economy will actually take place come October.”

The trend in gold futures is up with higher-highs being made just today. We are long gold futures since yesterday with target prices and protective stops in place.


Speculation on Fed’s Next Move Weighs on Copper Futures

Copper futures are lower for a second day on the outlook our domestic economy is strengthening to the point the Federal Reserve bank may consider tapering the ongoing stimulus.  The United States is the second biggest consumer of copper in the world.

Service industries account for the biggest part of our nations economy, and this reportedly expanded last month.  Data yesterday reports US manufacturing increased by the fastest pace in two years in November.

When we consider the notion that QE is supportive to Copper prices, and the concept of any future tapering would be harmful to prices, we find ourselves in a situation where good manufacturing numbers are now bad news for the market,” says Kevin Riordan, director of research at Capital Trading Group in Chicago, regarding the current copper futures situation. 

We are short copper futures with the overall prevailing trend.  Copper futures is testing the mid-November low at this time.


Gold Futures Pause for Fed Policy Decision

The recent uptrend for gold futures has taken a step, or two, back these past couple of days.  Investors are standing-by for a “policy statement” from the Federal Reserve indicating whether or not the central bank will begin tapering off their stimulus efforts.

Certainly no gold rush happening, but gold futures have climbed over 8% this month alone which is the biggest one-month gain since January of last year.  Maybe the Commerce Department’s statement regarding the economy expanding more than projected in the second quarter has something to do with gold price’s reversal from the $1,200 per ounce area.
In light of the fact that recent market data has been stronger than expected, many (gold futures) traders are being more cautious thinking that tapering may begin this year,” said Kevin Riordan, director of research at Capital Trading Group in Chicago, regarding the current gold futures situation.

The trend for gold futures has reversed to upward in my work in the latter part of this month.  I am trying to buy long gold futures, and today’s dip lower might provide the “way in” I am looking for…

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