Posts Tagged ‘grain market’

Soybean Futures Seasonal Trend Can Change With Planting Schedule

Soybean futures usually follow corn in planting each season, but a Midwestern field agronomist is touting a change in this long held view in an effort to produce higher yields than customary. Soybean futures are up .11 cents today, currently trading just above $9.53 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

The challenges to planting soybeans earlier than normal include labor logistics and equipment modifications, however an expert says certain key factors in understanding better results for plant “canopy closure” will provide soybean farmers better yields. She says for this to happen there must be an “increase in soybean nodes and pods per plant” which brings us back to the need for farmers to better understand canopy closure in their fields.

The trend for soybean futures is down and a relief rally appears to be emerging at this time. Soybean futures 18-day moving average is about .25 cents higher, so there may be higher prices near-term.

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Corn Futures Rise, Then Fall, .75 Cents After Wettest Season in 30 Years

Corn futures, in a one month period, have rallied and retreated .75 cents over precipitation concerns in the corn belt region of the Midwest. Corn futures are up .04 cents going into Thursday’s close currently trading just above $3.82 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

The rains in the state of Illinois alone are prompting state officials there to possibly request federal disaster assistance after receiving the most rain from May to present in the last 30 years! While Illinois is reported to have over 22 inches of rain between May & June, the water-logged fields might not reduce corn yields as much as it appears – according to an expert Midwestern analyst.

The trend for corn futures is down and this particular market has sold off from its mid-July high near $4.55 per bushel with absolutely no retracement from July 14th. Corn futures is a market that the novice trader should stay away from, and for the professional it should require a contraction of volatility before taking any position.

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Grain Futures Post USDA Report Re-cap

Grain futures realized an initial boost in prices after Friday’s USDA crop production report, but have since cooled-off and returned to report day prices, and in the case of wheat futures, Kansas Wheat has since retreated even lower. All grain futures are down for the day between .02 to .09 cents for the day at the Chicago Board of Trade..

The USDA revised domestic corn inventories significantly lower for the 2014-15 season – almost 100M bushels lower. US soybean stocks revised down 75M bushels, and wheat reserves at the end of the 2015-16 season revised upward by 28M bushels.

The grain markets are all in uptrends that emerged and accelerated without any significant pull-back – all based on a weather related outlook. From what I understand the weather is changing with milder temperatures and the Midwest is getting all the rain the crops need to flourish. Maybe its time to reassess the grain market’s uptrend so late in the season…

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Grain Futures Rise Despise Ideal Weather, Planting Progress

Grain futures are higher today on what is reportedly said to be “short covering” – traders unwinding “bets” that grain prices will fall further. Soybean futures lead the way (so far) up .15 cents for the day near their high of $5.09 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

The USDA said yesterday that most of the crops (spring & winter wheat combined), corn & soybeans have been planted, and emergence coming along greatly. Gov’t figures show corn to be the US’s biggest crop, then soybeans, and then wheat (actually behind #3 – “hay”).

As mentioned above, the trends for corn, soybeans, and CBT Wheat remain down (while KCBT Wheat is actually “up” in my work). This is the time of year when corn and soybeans rally into the fourth of July period, however, this is a different year than others with ample supply in each of these markets already a factor.

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Plantings Nearly Complete and Emerging Weigh on Wheat Futures

Wheat futures are testing last weeks lows one day after the release of the USDA crop production report and earlier reports of domestic spring wheat planting near completion. Wheat futures are currently down .08 cents today near $4.725 cents per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

A total of six states where 99% of the 2014 spring wheat crop domestic crop was planted are now reporting near completion and well above their five-year average for plantings. The five-year average of 51% of the spring wheat crop planted is being surpassed and currently at “87%” as of May 10th reporting.

The trend for wheat futures continues to be down with the market currently testing the May 5th low. With no bullish news in sight, it will be interesting to see how wheat negotiates heavy support .12 cents lower.

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Wheat Futures Extend Lows on Domestic Rainfall

Wheat futures extended its lows (after yesterday’s spiral) to prices not seen in four weeks after rain had been forecasted in key wheat growing states. Wheat futures ended the trading session near $4.95 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

Traders had been monitoring the precipitation models closely for this news and yesterday’s .24c plunge began the confirmation of this development. Also yesterday, the USDA confirmed the domestic winter wheat crop being rated at 42% “good to excellent” as of April 12th – down from 44% the week earlier, but much better than the “34%” rating this time last year.

Wheat futures trend is at a crossroad – still technically up, but if the market takes out today’s low before trading up to the $5.18 level, that would create the means to be bearish. Wheat futures had been trading sideways for almost three months, but now a clearer picture should be unfolding.

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Final Look at 2014/15 Crop by USDA a Mixed-Bag for Grain Futures

Grain futures were anticipating the USDA’s final look at the 2014/15 crop, but the actual data was mixed. Grain futures ended lower across the board with soybeans down nearly .17c, wheat down .075, and corn down a penny per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

The final ending stocks saw an increase for corn by 50M bushels, a 15M decrease for soybeans, and a seven-million bushel decrease for wheat. The world production saw only a negligible increase in production for all three.

The soy-product futures are still in down-trends, but corn and wheat are still holding on to fragile technical up-trends (in my work). Prices going forward from here should be more in line with weather fluctuations rather than supply since supply from old crop is now a definite known variable.

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Soybean Futures Hit New Low with Estimated Record Plantings

Soybean futures tumbled to new lows after the long awaited USDA prospective plantings report was released. Soybean futures have since rebounded off of the lows and are currently “unchanged” for the day (as of this writing) at the Chicago Board of Trade.

Here’s a brief summary of the prospective plantings report from 2014: Corn planted acreage DOWN 2%, along with all wheat acreage also DOWN 3%, and cotton acreage DOWN 13%. Soybean acreage, however, continues to climb…albeit only estimated UP 1% from last year, is a record high.

Soybean futures trend is down with no bottom yet in sight – especially after making new lows after the report. Looking for a short soybean futures position when the dust settles in this market.

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After Reaching Two Month Highs, Corn Futures in Retreat

Corn futures extended its gains early in the trading session to trade at highs not seen since last month, but has since abruptly turned around to trade lower for the day. Corn futures are currently $3.91 per bushel, down .04 cents at the Chicago Board of Trade.

Corn futures have gained 5% since last Wednesday’s low reportedly from technical buying once futures broke above key moving averages after the USDA Crop Progress report. A US Dollar declining from it’s highs has also played a role in stronger corn, I suspect.

The trend in corn futures has technically turned “up” with today’s very brief spike higher. With the complete and immediate turn-around with corn futures following that high, I will view it as a false signal until today’s high is to be taken out.

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With Crop Conditions Improving, Wheat Futures Lower

Wheat futures have retreated from five-week highs after the USDA reported all domestic winter-wheat crop conditions improving last week. Wheat futures are down more than .10 cents per bushel today (as of this writing) and down as much as .15 cents from their highs yesterday at the Chicago Board of Trade.

The USDA revealed Oklahoma winter-wheat rated 44% good to excellent and Texas winter-wheat at 55% – both improving by 4% from the previous week. In Kansas (the country’s top producing wheat state), only 41% of the wheat crop was rated good excellent which is unchanged from the previous week.

The trend for wheat futures has emerged up (surprisingly) only last week. The seasonal tendency is for wheat futures to be trending in the opposite direction (“down”) from February through July, so I am a bit skeptical about what has unfolding, but will trade accordingly.

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