Posts Tagged ‘harvest’

Soybean Futures at Risk with the Drop of Brazilian Real

Soybean futures have been put on notice coming into the northern hemisphere harvest, but in the southern, the currency crisis in Brazil has been a boon to soybean farmers there looking to unload their crop. Soybean futures, down four out of the last five trading sessions, is holding steady (up just over a penny) currently near $8.62 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

The Brazilian Real has fallen to a record low compared to the US Dollar, but the fall of the currency is setting-up favorable conditions for farmer’s there to see record high soybean sowings, despite early dry weather conditions. This Brazilian currency crisis, which provides great support for those farmers, may be an Achilles heel to farmers elsewhere with soybeans plentiful in supplies and stocks.

Soybean futures’ trend is down with no bottom yet in sight, however, the market is approaching long-term support that goes back to late 2012/early 2013. With harvest period in sight, I expect soybean futures to remain choppy to down at best until clearer fundamental conditions are learned after harvest.

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Coffee Futures Slightly Higher as Colombia’s Harvest Extends Recovery

Coffee futures may be pricing in Colombia’s resurgence of coffee production regardless of dry weather these past few months due to replanted trees maturing. Coffee futures are up a nominal 10 points currently trading just over $1.21 per pound at the Intercontinental Exchange.

The Colombia Coffee Growers Association is watching the developments closely as the government there anticipates 2015 production to be 13M tons on the high end. The country is the world’s second largest producer of the “arabica” coffee variety.

Coffee futures remain down with contract lows made just this past week. Coffee futures are still pricing in future supply with current demand so this is a plus for the coffee drinking public.

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Domestic Soft-Red Winter Wheat Quality Not Up to Par: Wheat Futures

Wheat futures may have a new situation to deal with in the foreseeable future – poor quality as well as quantity of the soft-red winter wheat variety said to be of the poorest rated going back more than 20 years. Wheat futures are trading lower by .07 today, currently at $4.79 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

Purchasers of US soft-red winter wheat are being advised by the US wheat export group, US Wheat Associates, to inspect their wheat purchases to ensure it meets their expectations of quality after unfavorable weather affected the crop. The wheat crop’s volume fell by almost 15% (to a five-year low) this year with the help of lower sowings.

Wheat futures trend is down but finding long-term support at the $4.70 level. Still no bottom left in sight for wheat futures at this time, but I would await some type of temporary relief rally before committing to a short position.

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Corn Futures May Soon Have to Price in Midwest Crop Damage

Corn futures are trading within last month’s USDA crop production report’s price range for that particular day, but corn farmers in the Midwest are reporting crop damage due to first, soaking rains in late spring/early summer, followed by a hot and dry August. Corn futures are trading down .06 cents currently at $3.69 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

A farmer that says he grows corn in Illinois on 1,500 acres calls his progress “a mix of the good, the bad, and the ugly” with normal-sized ears, but just as many plants hit with disease and/or lack of nutrients, or just plain dying on the vine. There are reportedly similar results appearing across the Midwest because of the crazy weather, so this isn’t a micro-regional situation.

The trend for corn futures is down, however the $3.65 area is offering strong support since late May. Corn futures is testing this support again, but if $3.57 fails there’s no bottom in sight.

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USDA Report a Shocker, Sends Corn Futures & Soybean Futures Limit Down

Corn futures and soybean futures initially went limit down following today’s USDA Crop Production report which increased corn and soybean yield estimates significantly. Corn futures ended the trading day down .195 cents at $3.68 per bushel and soybean futures down .615 cents to end the trading session at $9.10 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

Today’s report is the first survey-based yields for corn and soybeans which obviously came in much greater than analysts had predicted. For corn, the yield is estimated at 168.8 bushels per acre – much higher than the anticipated average of 164.5; and soybeans now have a current yield estimate of 46.9 bushels per acre when experts were expecting an average 44.7 bushels per acre.

Corn futures and soybean futures trends are down with no bottom yet in sight. I expect these markets to fall further over the next two months as we get closer to the harvest period.

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Agricultural Marketer Claims Now Is Not the Time to be Selling Wheat (Futures)

Wheat futures have rallied just over .20 cents from Monday’s monthly lows, but that’s peanuts compared to the unexpected $1.27 drop in wheat prices from the June 30th high. Wheat futures are up a nickel currently trading at $5.07 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

Despite last month’s sell-off, a Midwestern agricultural marketing strategist claims there are a couple of more rallies to come especially now that the cutting of the hard-red variety is mostly past at this time. As an advisor to domestic farmers nationwide he says to consider the seasonal standpoint and realize “making a lot of sales at harvest is rarely the right thing to do.”

Wheat futures trend is down at this time and it is going to take more action to change that. I would expect wheat futures to continue this leg up through tomorrow, but at least one more test of the low before an up-trend were to emerge.

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Soybean Futures Seasonal Trend Can Change With Planting Schedule

Soybean futures usually follow corn in planting each season, but a Midwestern field agronomist is touting a change in this long held view in an effort to produce higher yields than customary. Soybean futures are up .11 cents today, currently trading just above $9.53 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

The challenges to planting soybeans earlier than normal include labor logistics and equipment modifications, however an expert says certain key factors in understanding better results for plant “canopy closure” will provide soybean farmers better yields. She says for this to happen there must be an “increase in soybean nodes and pods per plant” which brings us back to the need for farmers to better understand canopy closure in their fields.

The trend for soybean futures is down and a relief rally appears to be emerging at this time. Soybean futures 18-day moving average is about .25 cents higher, so there may be higher prices near-term.

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Grain Futures Post USDA Report Re-cap

Grain futures realized an initial boost in prices after Friday’s USDA crop production report, but have since cooled-off and returned to report day prices, and in the case of wheat futures, Kansas Wheat has since retreated even lower. All grain futures are down for the day between .02 to .09 cents for the day at the Chicago Board of Trade..

The USDA revised domestic corn inventories significantly lower for the 2014-15 season – almost 100M bushels lower. US soybean stocks revised down 75M bushels, and wheat reserves at the end of the 2015-16 season revised upward by 28M bushels.

The grain markets are all in uptrends that emerged and accelerated without any significant pull-back – all based on a weather related outlook. From what I understand the weather is changing with milder temperatures and the Midwest is getting all the rain the crops need to flourish. Maybe its time to reassess the grain market’s uptrend so late in the season…

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After USDA Acreage & Planting Report, Wheat Futures Pause

Wheat futures have stalled after reaching six-month highs following Tuesday’s major USDA crop progress report and the concern over the pace of the harvest. Wheat futures today are down one cent (as of this writing) currently trading at $5.875 per bushel – off .30 cents from Tuesday’s post-report, six-month high.

Traders rallied wheat (futures) prices into, and after, the USDA announced two key reports on acreage committed to certain grains and crops, plus quarterly stock inventory. Even before the report was released the last day in June, wheat prices had already soared 23% on the outlook that excessive rainfall in the Midwest will damage crops and delay the pace of harvesting.

The trend in wheat futures is clearly up, but at the beginning of last week this wasn’t the case. Wheat futures came out of a down-trend on this current speculation, and there is no top yet in sight…

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Foreign Exporters & Domestic Ranchers Helping Push Wheat Futures Lower

Wheat futures is playing a cruel joke on our domestic farmers despite having the smallest crop harvested recently for the past three years. Wheat futures are finding lower prices because of outside factors such as surging wheat output overseas and a switching in feed in domestic use.

Now that feed prices have come back down to reality, US cattle ranchers have resumed using more corn in their livestock’s feed – which makes sense. What makes more “cents” is the fact our strong US Dollar is promoting other nations to look for wheat supplies elsewhere where the supply is much more plentiful – and less expensive.

The trend for wheat futures is down with no bottom yet in price. I will need some type of relief rally before getting short wheat futures.

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