Posts Tagged ‘soybean’

Soybean Futures at Risk with the Drop of Brazilian Real

Soybean futures have been put on notice coming into the northern hemisphere harvest, but in the southern, the currency crisis in Brazil has been a boon to soybean farmers there looking to unload their crop. Soybean futures, down four out of the last five trading sessions, is holding steady (up just over a penny) currently near $8.62 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

The Brazilian Real has fallen to a record low compared to the US Dollar, but the fall of the currency is setting-up favorable conditions for farmer’s there to see record high soybean sowings, despite early dry weather conditions. This Brazilian currency crisis, which provides great support for those farmers, may be an Achilles heel to farmers elsewhere with soybeans plentiful in supplies and stocks.

Soybean futures’ trend is down with no bottom yet in sight, however, the market is approaching long-term support that goes back to late 2012/early 2013. With harvest period in sight, I expect soybean futures to remain choppy to down at best until clearer fundamental conditions are learned after harvest.

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USDA Report a Shocker, Sends Corn Futures & Soybean Futures Limit Down

Corn futures and soybean futures initially went limit down following today’s USDA Crop Production report which increased corn and soybean yield estimates significantly. Corn futures ended the trading day down .195 cents at $3.68 per bushel and soybean futures down .615 cents to end the trading session at $9.10 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

Today’s report is the first survey-based yields for corn and soybeans which obviously came in much greater than analysts had predicted. For corn, the yield is estimated at 168.8 bushels per acre – much higher than the anticipated average of 164.5; and soybeans now have a current yield estimate of 46.9 bushels per acre when experts were expecting an average 44.7 bushels per acre.

Corn futures and soybean futures trends are down with no bottom yet in sight. I expect these markets to fall further over the next two months as we get closer to the harvest period.

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Soybean Futures Seasonal Trend Can Change With Planting Schedule

Soybean futures usually follow corn in planting each season, but a Midwestern field agronomist is touting a change in this long held view in an effort to produce higher yields than customary. Soybean futures are up .11 cents today, currently trading just above $9.53 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

The challenges to planting soybeans earlier than normal include labor logistics and equipment modifications, however an expert says certain key factors in understanding better results for plant “canopy closure” will provide soybean farmers better yields. She says for this to happen there must be an “increase in soybean nodes and pods per plant” which brings us back to the need for farmers to better understand canopy closure in their fields.

The trend for soybean futures is down and a relief rally appears to be emerging at this time. Soybean futures 18-day moving average is about .25 cents higher, so there may be higher prices near-term.

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Soybean Futures Pullback for Fifth Session on Improving Crop Prospects

Soybean futures have sold-off everyday since the June 30th spike in price reportedly due to an upbeat crop outlook in the Midwest. Soybean futures extended their lows today to just under $9.79 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade – soybean prices not seen since late June.

The USDA surprised analysts by reportedly stating almost 63% of the domestic soybean crop was rated in good to excellent condition as of last Sunday. Compare this to soybean emergence reported at 93% complete which is an improvement from 89% the week earlier, and 21% of the soybean crop blooming which is up from 13% in the prior week.

The trend for soybean futures is up with no top yet in sight. Despite the sell-off from the late June high, this appears to be an opportunity for those bullish this market to find a position soon.

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Soybean Futures Breakout to Five Week High Over Crop Conditions

Soybean futures have had a two-day breakout to the upside to prices not seen since early last month on the outlook of current crop conditions. Soybean futures are up an additional .10 cents today currently trading at $9.375 per bushel (as of this writing) at the Chicago Board of Trade.

There are weather concerns going on in the US’s soybean growing region and as of June 14th, the USDA rated the domestic soybean crop 67% good to excellent condition – down from 69% the week prior and down from 73% the preceding week before that. To make matters just a little bit more interesting, the USDA also reports only 87% of the soybean crop planted which is just shy of the 90% five year average.

Soybean futures technical trend remains down, but is at a crossroad in my work. Should soybean futures trade above today’s high in the next few sessions (without trading back down to the $9.10 area first), then the trend dynamics would change to up (again, in my study).

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Planting Progress Sends Soybean Futures to Seven-Month Low

Soybean futures have extended their lows today to prices not seen since October as signs of rapid soybean planting progress is taking place across the Midwest last week. Soybean futures are down .04 cents today currently trading near $9.42 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

The USDA has reported nearly 45% of the domestic crop being planted as of this past weekend, which is up a whopping 31% from the week prior. At this same time last year, coincidently nearly 31% was planted. The five-year average is “36%” so you can see we’re well above this too.

Soybean futures trend has resumed down after much sideways trading for the better part of the past two-and-a-half months. I will need some type of pull-back higher before I can enter the short side of this market…

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Soybean Futures Initially Rise With Soy Oil Demand

Soybean futures initially rallied for a third straight trading session with the strength of soybean oil demand, but both markets have since retreated and are just below unchanged as of this writing. Soybeans reached a price of $9.90 per bushel earlier in the trading session when soybean oil futures extended their three-day gain at the Chicago Board of Trade.

Soybean futures is considered the “parent” contract of both its by-products – soybean oil, made from pressed soybeans, and soymeal, the left-overs once the oil is removed used for livestock feed. The rally and demand of soybean oil was up as much as 6% twice this week.

Soybean futures have rolled over to a technical uptrend only last week with lack of follow-through. We can expect more range-bound until July Soybean futures can break through resistance at $9.95, or support at $9.60 per bushel.

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Less Acreage Planted Up North a Boost for Soybean Futures

Soybean futures have rallied today when our friends from up north in Canada have reported their planting intentions. With world inventories left at glut levels, soybean futures have found support as late as early April at a price near $9.47 per bushel, and Canada’s news to plant less soybeans is proving to be a resistance finder.

Canadian farmers were polled (11,500 participating) between March 18th through the 25th and the study found less acres intended for soybeans. Last year, Canada dedicated a record amount of acreage for soybeans, but this year it will decrease by 3.4%, and this mainly comes from two provinces – Ontario & Quebec.

The trend for soybean futures remains down despite the .42 cent rally from the lows only two weeks ago. Soybean futures should still have a test of its low forthcoming…

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Final Look at 2014/15 Crop by USDA a Mixed-Bag for Grain Futures

Grain futures were anticipating the USDA’s final look at the 2014/15 crop, but the actual data was mixed. Grain futures ended lower across the board with soybeans down nearly .17c, wheat down .075, and corn down a penny per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

The final ending stocks saw an increase for corn by 50M bushels, a 15M decrease for soybeans, and a seven-million bushel decrease for wheat. The world production saw only a negligible increase in production for all three.

The soy-product futures are still in down-trends, but corn and wheat are still holding on to fragile technical up-trends (in my work). Prices going forward from here should be more in line with weather fluctuations rather than supply since supply from old crop is now a definite known variable.

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Soybean Futures Hit New Low with Estimated Record Plantings

Soybean futures tumbled to new lows after the long awaited USDA prospective plantings report was released. Soybean futures have since rebounded off of the lows and are currently “unchanged” for the day (as of this writing) at the Chicago Board of Trade.

Here’s a brief summary of the prospective plantings report from 2014: Corn planted acreage DOWN 2%, along with all wheat acreage also DOWN 3%, and cotton acreage DOWN 13%. Soybean acreage, however, continues to climb…albeit only estimated UP 1% from last year, is a record high.

Soybean futures trend is down with no bottom yet in sight – especially after making new lows after the report. Looking for a short soybean futures position when the dust settles in this market.

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