Posts Tagged ‘US exports’

Milk Prices Down One-Third Since Spring

Milk futures continue to make lower highs and lower lows since wholesale milk prices reached a five-year high last September and are now down one-third from this high making the Dairy State farmers feel the economic pinch. Milk futures for September delivery are up .04 cents today currently trading at $16.50 (per CWT) at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

The La Crosse Tribune reported wholesale milk prices topping out with a five-year high of $27.10 (CWT) in Minnesota and Wisconsin dairy farmers seeing $26.60 (CWT) for their milk, but since this past March – when the USDA reported milk prices as low as $17.10 and $17.60 (CWT) respectively in those states – milk prices have only come up slightly and are at a premium to the milk futures prices. Even the exports of milk have all but dried-up with economic sanctions in Russia, and glut of milk production in China, and New Zealand becoming a major player in the milk exporting business.

Milk futures trend is down with no bottom yet in sight. What is temporarily bad for the dairy producer is good for the family budget, but for how long will this last…?

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Upbeat Employment & Trade Data Not Enough for Gold Futures

Gold futures fell today to lows not seen since early last month on the outlook of positive data making the case for an interest-rate hike this year. Gold futures are down $8.60 currently at $1,185.80 per ounce (but traded to $1,180 earlier in the trading session) at the New York Commodity Exchange.

The US Commerce Department reported the trade deficit narrowed close to 20% in April exceeding analysts expectations, while in the same month US exports ticked up a full 1% and imports declined 3.3%. This information came before the payroll processing firm “ADP” stated May non-farm payrolls rose a hair above expectations to 201,000 with the economy creating 165,000 jobs.

The trend for gold futures has been absolutely sideways for 2.5 months while technically “up” in my work. A couple more down days from here could change the trend from up to down, however – today’s/tomorrow’s lows must hold.

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Cotton Futures Uptrending on Higher Exports

Cotton futures reached seven-week highs yesterday in a newly emerged up-trend based on less cotton mill usage and increased exports. Yesterday’s USDA Crop Production report revealed 2014/15 domestic cotton estimates showing less mill production and the higher exports compared with last months data. Cotton futures closed down today about 26 points from yesterday’s seven-week high at New York’s Commodity Exchange Center.

More insight from yesterday’s report also showed estimated production and and total inventories unchanged from the last estimate in January. However, there was slower than expected consumption through December, but that balanced against stronger than expected foreign sales and demand for medium to high-grade cotton.

Cotton futures have rolled over to a newly established up-trend just last week. I am cautiously optimistic on being long, hover cotton futures have not had a significant test of their lows from last month which concerns me.

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Corn Futures Lower on Int’l Grain Council’s Supply Outlook

Corn futures are down for the second trading session in a row following the Int’l Grain Council’s speculation that global corn output will exceed another forecast from November. The improved prospects for more corn output is due to South American production which raises the corn estimate for an eight time now.

The London-based group claims that larger corn crops around the globe will put inventories at the end of this current season to levels not seen in 30 years. The group made this claim when they realized corn farmers will reap nearly 10M tons more than previously forecasted.

Corn futures trend is technically “up” in my study and research. This can all change for corn futures if they were to take out $3.75 per bushel this week. We’re about a dime higher as of this writing.

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Wheat Futures Higher on Frost Concerns in US & Black Sea Region

Wheat futures have climbed to a one week high today when it was learned freezing weather may damage winter wheat varieties in the Black Sea growing region and may have affected crops here in the US. The US is the world’s biggest exporter of wheat, yet it is only the US’s fourth biggest cash crop behind corn, soybeans, and “hay.”

A USDA report recently showed domestic winter-wheat crop conditions deteriorated in the week ending November 23rd, and snow cover in the Russian wheat growing region is forecasted to remain “limited” for the next couple of weeks – leaving the crops vulnerable to cold snaps.

The trend for wheat futures is still in a newly emerged up trend, with hard-red winter wheat turning up only today (in my study). I am looking for more upside with wheat futures into early next year.

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Record US Crop Send Soybean Futures Sliding to Lower Lows

Soybean futures have abruptly retreated from a three-month high made only last week as farmers race to increase sales from this harvest’s bumper crop. The US is the world’s biggest producer of soybeans and soybean futures is one of the featured markets hosted at the Chicago Board of Trade.

With the USDA reporting 94% of the soybean harvested earlier this week, they also mentioned output unceasing 18% to a nearly 4B bushel record. Also, it is reported that as of yesterday, premiums on soybean supplies for export from New Orleans have fell to the lowest since early summer.

Soybean futures trend remains up, albeit with a possible top in sight. I am still looking for buy signals with soybean futures until a clearer picture proves to me otherwise.

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Soybean Futures Rising With Increased US Exports

Soybean futures are finding higher support levels as the month progresses, this week soybeans are climbing on a couple of factors: signs of increased export sales, and a slower than anticipated harvest progress due to weather. Soybean futures are up .20 cents per bushel in Chicago as of this writing.

As of last week, USDA data reveals inspections for soybean exports have risen almost 25% since last month (compared to this same time last year). The USDA has also recently stated soybean farmers have only harvested 53% of their crops – as of this past Sunday – when compared to the five-year average for this time of year of “66%” that “should” be harvested.

The trend for soybean futures is technically “down,” however soymeal futures are leading the soy-complex with a strong recently emerged up-trend. I need more price structure to trade out before a clearer picture can be determined, but I am happy to participate in soymeal futures while on the sidelines of the parent contract.

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Waning Shipments Before US Harvest Lowers Soybean Futures

Let it be known soybean orders for the five important exporting country’s “dropped significantly” in August before global inventories become replenished when the US begins its soybean harvest in the next few weeks, according to the German-based industry group Oil World. Soybean futures are down today .08c from yesterday’s close as of this writing.

Oil World went on to say soybean exports from those five major countries still rose for the 2013-2014 marketing year that ended last month, some countries 20% more than the prior year. However, combined exports from the US, and four South American countries fell significantly last month to a “multi-month low” and 24% less that in August 2013.

Kevin Riordan, director of research at Capital Trading Group in Chicago, shared his insight regarding the current soybean futures situation, As we head into the middle of September new crop soybean supplies will likely begin to increase noticeably. This follows a period were North American shipments were depressed and South American soybean supplies and exports had been declining due to season pressure.”

The trend for soybeans futures is down with no bottom yet in sight. We are short soymeal and soybean oil with new lows made in soybean meal futures just today.

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Wheat Futures Breaks Out to 3-Week High on Black Sea Region Concerns

Wheat futures continue to grind higher with higher highs and higher lows since basing from late last month. Wheat futures have risen to a three-week high on the outlook of supplies from the Black Sea area could be compromised with tensions escalating between Russia and Ukraine.

The Commercial Traders Index monitored each week illustrates wheat futures speculators cutting away from short positions for the last three weeks. According to the USDA, the Black Sea region accounts for 21% of all global wheat exports.

Fears of additional Russian and Ukraine fighting going into the long weekend gave the wheat market a boost. Look for continued (wheat futures) volatility with conflicting reports coming out of the Black Sea region,” said Kevin Craney, Director of Managed Futures at RJO Futures in Chicago, sharing his insight regarding the current wheat futures situation.

Wheat futures trend is technically “down” at this time, but as I mentioned in the opening comments there is a very strong base where it appears there has been a “turn-over” from short, to long, speculating. I need a clearer picture to unfold, but I am looking forward to the change in trend upward when it comes!

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Wheat Futures at a Crossroads as US Raises Export Forecast Amid Harvest Upgrade

Wheat futures initially rallied in early morning trade once the USDA revised its outlook for domestic exports of wheat and global demand – effectively negating the increased production realization in yesterday’s report. Wheat futures have since reversed direction and are down for the trading session having made lower lows from yesterday.

The USDA said in its report yesterday the US is expected to export 25.5 M metric tons of wheat during the 2014-2015 fiscal year – revising its earlier estimate by 500,000 tons. The USDA’s estimate for domestic inventory was little changed even after raising its wheat harvest forecast.

Kevin Riordan, director of research at Capital Trading Group in Chicago, shared his insight regarding the current wheat futures situation by stating, The expected increase in US wheat exports has offset the increase in production. This balance is keeping the ending stocks the same as they were last month.”

The trend for wheat futures remains down, but with a possible bottom – or bottoming action – taking place presently. Hard-red winter wheat futures are within .04c of their January low, and soft-red winter wheat futures appear to be putting in a strong base and “head-and-shoulders” formation.

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