Posts Tagged ‘wheat prices’

Domestic Soft-Red Winter Wheat Quality Not Up to Par: Wheat Futures

Wheat futures may have a new situation to deal with in the foreseeable future – poor quality as well as quantity of the soft-red winter wheat variety said to be of the poorest rated going back more than 20 years. Wheat futures are trading lower by .07 today, currently at $4.79 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

Purchasers of US soft-red winter wheat are being advised by the US wheat export group, US Wheat Associates, to inspect their wheat purchases to ensure it meets their expectations of quality after unfavorable weather affected the crop. The wheat crop’s volume fell by almost 15% (to a five-year low) this year with the help of lower sowings.

Wheat futures trend is down but finding long-term support at the $4.70 level. Still no bottom left in sight for wheat futures at this time, but I would await some type of temporary relief rally before committing to a short position.


Wheat Market to Evaluate South American Crops Hit by El Nino

Wheat futures will have to assess the damage done to South American crops affected by the reportedly worst El Nino to strike the continent in 30 years. Wheat futures ended the day up .11 cents to close just above $5.03 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

This week has seen flooding and landslides in both Argentina and Chile that is said to have damaged crops as well as 30 towns affecting 20,000 people. It is reported that not only 3.5M hectares of wheat crops were hit in Argentina, but the heavy rains will also bring on fungal disease which will adversely affect the wheat’s quality.

The trend for wheat futures is down with no bottom yet in sight. Hopefully yesterday’s downward action was a “capitulation” phase for wheat futures.


Agricultural Marketer Claims Now Is Not the Time to be Selling Wheat (Futures)

Wheat futures have rallied just over .20 cents from Monday’s monthly lows, but that’s peanuts compared to the unexpected $1.27 drop in wheat prices from the June 30th high. Wheat futures are up a nickel currently trading at $5.07 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

Despite last month’s sell-off, a Midwestern agricultural marketing strategist claims there are a couple of more rallies to come especially now that the cutting of the hard-red variety is mostly past at this time. As an advisor to domestic farmers nationwide he says to consider the seasonal standpoint and realize “making a lot of sales at harvest is rarely the right thing to do.”

Wheat futures trend is down at this time and it is going to take more action to change that. I would expect wheat futures to continue this leg up through tomorrow, but at least one more test of the low before an up-trend were to emerge.


After USDA Acreage & Planting Report, Wheat Futures Pause

Wheat futures have stalled after reaching six-month highs following Tuesday’s major USDA crop progress report and the concern over the pace of the harvest. Wheat futures today are down one cent (as of this writing) currently trading at $5.875 per bushel – off .30 cents from Tuesday’s post-report, six-month high.

Traders rallied wheat (futures) prices into, and after, the USDA announced two key reports on acreage committed to certain grains and crops, plus quarterly stock inventory. Even before the report was released the last day in June, wheat prices had already soared 23% on the outlook that excessive rainfall in the Midwest will damage crops and delay the pace of harvesting.

The trend in wheat futures is clearly up, but at the beginning of last week this wasn’t the case. Wheat futures came out of a down-trend on this current speculation, and there is no top yet in sight…


Wheat Futures Hit Two-Month High, Reverse Course After USDA

Wheat futures reached highs not seen since early April in its renewed uptrend, and just before the monthly USDA Crop Production was released. Wheat futures did an about-face just prior to the report and closed down almost .20 cents for the day just below $5.13 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

The trade expected the USDA to raise their estimates for both corn and wheat supplies, and lower the outlook for soybeans in this current crop season. The released estimates for these markets were indeed confirmed, but the market sold off thereafter.

The trend for both hard & soft-red winter wheat is up with soft-red stronger of the two. In my view, the wheat market’s rallied early this year due to the heavy rains in the Central Plains – prime wheat growing country and the result of these down-pours still has yet to be seen…


Wheat Futures Higher With Continued Short-Covering, Winter-Wheat Concerns

Wheat futures have resumed their rally after a day’s break with short-covering momentum returning to challenging their recent highs. July CBT Wheat futures are currently up .12 cents near their high of the day as of this writing at $5.23 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

US winter-wheat prices are up an average 9% from last week with the last of the bearish holdouts and renewed concern over the health of this year’s winter wheat crop. The USDA actually downgraded the the rating of our domestic winter-wheat crop from 45% (week before last), to 44% just recently.

Winter wheat futures trends are mixed at this time although the chart action appears to be similar. Taking a closer look…soft-red’s trend is down, while hard-red’s is up in my study of these markets. During times like this – when markets seem to disconnect – it is best to step aside until a clearer picture emerges.


Plantings Nearly Complete and Emerging Weigh on Wheat Futures

Wheat futures are testing last weeks lows one day after the release of the USDA crop production report and earlier reports of domestic spring wheat planting near completion. Wheat futures are currently down .08 cents today near $4.725 cents per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

A total of six states where 99% of the 2014 spring wheat crop domestic crop was planted are now reporting near completion and well above their five-year average for plantings. The five-year average of 51% of the spring wheat crop planted is being surpassed and currently at “87%” as of May 10th reporting.

The trend for wheat futures continues to be down with the market currently testing the May 5th low. With no bullish news in sight, it will be interesting to see how wheat negotiates heavy support .12 cents lower.


Grain Futures May Be Seeing Valuation Buying

Both corn futures and wheat futures may be experiencing buying demand from their recent lows at what may be considered bargain prices from the last six months. Both grain futures began the day extending their gains from the last couple of days, but have since turned lower to close down for the day at the Chicago Board of Trade.

Corn futures fell to nearly $3.62 per bushel Tuesday which is its lowest level since early March and is down about 2% this month. Wheat futures saw a contract low of $4.6375 on Tuesday with favorable forecasts in the key wheat growing regions, and this market is on track to have dropped 5% this month.

Corn futures and wheat futures are clearly down with no bottom yet in sight. Looking for a retracement higher in these grain markets before getting onboard the short side.


Wheat Futures Fall to Seven Month Lows

Wheat futures fell today to prices not seen since late September following the USDA’s report yesterday of spring wheat planting progress. Wheat futures later turned up for the day to close just over .03 higher at $4.765 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

The USDA is reporting rapid planting throughout the Midwest last week which was anticipated in yesterday’s .15c drop. They have 55% of the spring wheat crop planted as of Sunday, which is 36% higher then the preceding week with 42% of the wheat crop rated good to excellent condition.

Wheat futures trend is down with no bottom left in sight. In the next rally higher I think we should see wheat futures trend lower if/when September’s lows fail.


Wheat Futures Extend Lows on Domestic Rainfall

Wheat futures extended its lows (after yesterday’s spiral) to prices not seen in four weeks after rain had been forecasted in key wheat growing states. Wheat futures ended the trading session near $4.95 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

Traders had been monitoring the precipitation models closely for this news and yesterday’s .24c plunge began the confirmation of this development. Also yesterday, the USDA confirmed the domestic winter wheat crop being rated at 42% “good to excellent” as of April 12th – down from 44% the week earlier, but much better than the “34%” rating this time last year.

Wheat futures trend is at a crossroad – still technically up, but if the market takes out today’s low before trading up to the $5.18 level, that would create the means to be bearish. Wheat futures had been trading sideways for almost three months, but now a clearer picture should be unfolding.

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