Wheat Futures at a Crossroads as US Raises Export Forecast Amid Harvest Upgrade

Wheat futures initially rallied in early morning trade once the USDA revised its outlook for domestic exports of wheat and global demand – effectively negating the increased production realization in yesterday’s report. Wheat futures have since reversed direction and are down for the trading session having made lower lows from yesterday.

The USDA said in its report yesterday the US is expected to export 25.5 M metric tons of wheat during the 2014-2015 fiscal year – revising its earlier estimate by 500,000 tons. The USDA’s estimate for domestic inventory was little changed even after raising its wheat harvest forecast.

Kevin Riordan, director of research at Capital Trading Group in Chicago, shared his insight regarding the current wheat futures situation by stating, The expected increase in US wheat exports has offset the increase in production. This balance is keeping the ending stocks the same as they were last month.”

The trend for wheat futures remains down, but with a possible bottom – or bottoming action – taking place presently. Hard-red winter wheat futures are within .04c of their January low, and soft-red winter wheat futures appear to be putting in a strong base and “head-and-shoulders” formation.

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