Wheat Futures Breaks Out to 3-Week High on Black Sea Region Concerns

Wheat futures continue to grind higher with higher highs and higher lows since basing from late last month. Wheat futures have risen to a three-week high on the outlook of supplies from the Black Sea area could be compromised with tensions escalating between Russia and Ukraine.

The Commercial Traders Index monitored each week illustrates wheat futures speculators cutting away from short positions for the last three weeks. According to the USDA, the Black Sea region accounts for 21% of all global wheat exports.

Fears of additional Russian and Ukraine fighting going into the long weekend gave the wheat market a boost. Look for continued (wheat futures) volatility with conflicting reports coming out of the Black Sea region,” said Kevin Craney, Director of Managed Futures at RJO Futures in Chicago, sharing his insight regarding the current wheat futures situation.

Wheat futures trend is technically “down” at this time, but as I mentioned in the opening comments there is a very strong base where it appears there has been a “turn-over” from short, to long, speculating. I need a clearer picture to unfold, but I am looking forward to the change in trend upward when it comes!

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